AFCON 2025 Group B Permutations: What Bafana Bafana Need to Reach the Last 16?

South Africa’s Bafana Bafana head into their final Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON 2025) Group B fixture against Zimbabwe in Marrakesh on Monday with a clear objective: avoid defeat.

A draw will be enough to secure progression to the Round of 16, while a win could see them finish level on points with Egypt.

Group B Standings

Group B	P	W	L	D	GD	PTS
Egypt	2	2	0	1	2	6
South Africa	2	1	1	1	0	3
Angola	2	0	1	1	-1	1
Zimbabwe	2	0	1	1	-1	1

Group B standings after Round 2 of matches

Permutations for South Africa

If South Africa draw vs Zimbabwe → They qualify automatically in second place, regardless of Angola’s result against Egypt.
If South Africa win vs Zimbabwe → They finish level with Egypt on six points, but Egypt top the group due to head‑to‑head advantage.
If South Africa lose vs Zimbabwe → They risk elimination. Zimbabwe would leapfrog them, and Angola could also overtake if they beat Egypt. In this case, Bafana would rely on being one of the four best third‑placed teams.

Head-to-Head Advantage

South Africa’s earlier 2-1 victory over Angola gives them a crucial edge if both sides finish level on four points.

With most Group B matches decided by narrow margins, goal difference will only matter if teams cannot be separated on head-to-head records, such as Angola and Zimbabwe.

Recent Group B Results

22 December	South Africa 2-1 Angola
22 December	Egypt 2-1 Zimbabwe
26 December	Angola 1-1 Zimbabwe
26 December	Egypt 1-0 South Africa

The Equation for Bafana Bafana

Coach Hugo Broos knows the task is simple: draw and qualify, win and strengthen their position, lose and risk elimination. With Egypt already through, all eyes will be on Marrakesh to see if South Africa can secure their place in the knockout rounds of AFCON 2025.

Who Will Bafana Bafana Play Next?

If South Africa secure progression as Group B runners‑up, they will face the Group F runners‑up in the Round of 16. Group F features Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Gabon, and Mozambique. With Ivory Coast and Cameroon both strong contenders, the runner‑up is likely to be one of these giants. That means South Africa could face a heavyweight clash against Ivory Coast or Cameroon in the knockout stage of AFCON 2025.