2026 World Cup: How Bafana Bafana can qualify after points deduction

The inevitable finally happened for Bafana Bafana when they were docked three points and five goals by FIFA following the blunder that saw them field an ineligible player against Lesotho.

South Africa were punished following the fielding of midfielder Teboho Mokoena in their World Cup qualifier against Lesotho on March 21 with the punishment seeing them drop down from a position of comfort into a spot of bother.

Having occupied top spot with 17 points, three ahead of second-placed Benin, and six more than both Nigeria and Rwanda, South Africa are now on 14 points, same as the Squirrels, and three ahead of the Super eagles and the Amavubi with two matches remaining.

🚨 The 3pts docked mustn’t shake the country but should be a lesson to the national team administration. 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, and 🇷🇼 Rwanda will cancel each other.

• South Africa will face (Zimbabwe & Rwanda)
• Benin will face (Rwanda & Nigeria)
• Nigeria will face (Lesotho… pic.twitter.com/OjiVIGE5EH

— Sinethemba Makonco (@Makonco_M) September 29, 2025

Still, Bafana Bafana are second in Group C due to an inferior goal difference with a +3, behind leaders Benin, who have a +4 goal difference, heading into their matches against Zimbabwe in Durban on October 10 and Rwanda at the Mbombela Stadium four days later.

How Bafana Bafana can seal World Cup ticket

Meanwhile, Benin will face Rwanda and Nigeria while the Super Eagles take on Lesotho and the Squirrels with Rwanda’s other match being against Gernot Rohr’s team.

It means South Africa will have to win both their matches but still hope for favours from elsewhere to seal a direct ticket to the World Cup.

Assuming they beat both Zimbabwe and Rwanda, South Africa will take their tally to 20 points but will then need Benin to drop points. Benin will therefore need to win both matches to stay ahead of Bafana Bafana but anything other than maximum points will put Hugo Broos’ team through.

The second scenario that would put Bafana Bafana through, even if Benin win both matches, is a situation where South Africa outscores the Squirrels.

What other scenarios are available to South Africa?

At the moment, Benin’s advantage is just one goal and they seem to have the toughest matches, on paper, between the two teams, and there is a likelihood of playing out low-scoring games while Bafana Bafana could be involved in high scoring matches, especially against Zimbabwe, which could boost their goal difference.

Meanwhile, if both teams win and Benin still have their advantage on goal difference, then Rohr’s team will seal a historic place at the World Cup but South Africa would then drop into the playoffs where they would have to negotiate their way in a tough round of matches.

This is because in the Africa World Cup qualifiers, the nine group winners will earn a direct ticket to the World Cup while the best four second placed teams will go into a playoff where they will be paired in one-off semi-finals and then a final with the winning team then heading into an inter-continental playoff early next year.

This is not a place South Africa want to find themselves in as only one ticket will be available for teams from all the confederations which is tough to negotiate.