AFCON long shots assessed: Which of the 100/1 outsiders are the best bet?

The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations kicks off on December 21 with 24 teams set to battle it out for continental glory in Morocco.

Hosts Morocco are the early favourites in the AFCON betting odds, but the tournament promises to be wide open.

Nevertheless, there are currently nine nations who can be backed at odds of 100/1 or higher in the pre-tournament AFCON betting.

AFCON outright betting odds

Odds are correct as of the time of writing, and are subject to change thereafter.

AFCON long shots

• Mozambique 100/1
• Sudan 100/1
• Benin 100/1
• Equatorial Guinea 100/1
• Tanzania 150/1
• Comoros 150/1
• Uganda 200/1
• Zimbabwe 350/1
• Botswana 500/1

Are the nine nations listed above all no-hopers or could one of these long shots be worth a small each-way punt?

Below, we assess AFCON 2025’s nine biggest long shots and decide which one of them we would most recommend sticking five rand on.

Mozambique

Best AFCON performance: Never gone beyond group stage

Current FIFA world ranking: 102

Star player: Sunderland left-back Reinildo Mandava

Are Mozambique a viable long shot for AFCON 2025?

Mozambique’s best hope of causing an AFCON shock is to keep well organised defensively — just as they did in AFCON qualifying when they did not concede more than one goal in any single game.

But that has proven difficult more recently, with Mozambique losing 5-1 to Algeria and 4-0 to Uganda in World Cup qualifying.

Getting out of Group F — which also includes Cameroon, Ivory Coast and Gabon — would be a shock. Winning the tournament would be a miracle.

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Sudan

Best AFCON performance: Champions in 1970

Current FIFA world ranking: 118

Star player: Goalkeeper Mohamed Al Nour who plays for Al-Merrikh.

Are Sudan a viable long shot for AFCON 2025?

Sudan might have won the AFCON in 1970 but their best performance since then was a quarter-final in 2012.

They last played AFCON in 2021, when they exited at the group stage, and qualified for the 2025 tournament as Group F runners-up to Angola with eight points after two wins, two draws and as many losses, having scored just four while conceding six.

Sudan have been counting on a strong defensive record but with just one clean sheet in their last 5 matches, their best AFCON performance would be to get out of a Group E that has Algeria, Burkina Faso and Equatorial Guinea. Winning AFCON 2025 is out of the question.

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Benin

Best AFCON performance: Quarter-finals in 2019

Current FIFA world ranking: 92

Star player: Striker Steve Mounie who plays for Alanyaspor in Turkey.

Are BENIN a viable long shot for AFCON 2025?

Benin, whose best performance was a quarter-final in 2019, qualified as second placed team from Group D that was won with Nigeria (11 points) while they had eight after two wins, as many draws and losses.

They scored seven and conceded as many but really came of age in the World Cup qualifiers when they headed into the final match as group leaders only to lose out in heartbreaking fashion.

With striker Steve Mounie scoring six goals in 16 World Cup and AFCON Qualifiers, Andreas Hountondji netting three over that period, the Squirrels can back themselves to be one of the best-ranked third-placed teams.

Benin will find it hard to finish ahead of either Senegal or DR Congo from a group that also has Botswana. Benin stand no chance of winning AFCON 20255.  

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Equatorial Guinea

Best AFCON performance: Fourth place in 2015

Current FIFA world ranking: 97

Star player: Goalkeeper Jesús Owono of Andorra FC who has shone in the last two AFCONs.

Are Equatorial Guinea a viable long shot for AFCON 2025?

Equatorial Guinea have only been to the AFCON four times before but they have never failed to get beyond the group stage.

They beat Liberia twice in qualifying. That also held Algeria and Togo to draws, as well as losing to both.

They will need more than a slice of luck but, on their day, Equatorial Guinea can compete with Africa’s best.

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Tanzania

Best AFCON performance: Never gone beyond group stage

Current FIFA world ranking: 112

Star player: Attacking midfielder Feisal ‘Fei Toto’ Salum of Azam FC.

Are Tanzania a viable long shot for AFCON 2025?

Taifa Stars qualified for their fifth AFCON after a great qualifying run that saw them finish second in a tight group when they had 10 points, leaders DR Congo on 12 and third-placed Guinea on 9.

Tanzania beat Guinea home and away, drew with Ethiopia at home before beating them away with their two losses coming against DR Congo.

Given they history, Tanzania have no chance of getting out of Group C that also has Nigeria, Tunisia and Uganda and winning AFCON 2025 is impossible.

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Comoros

Best AFCON performance: Reached round of 16 in only previous appearance (2021)

Current FIFA world ranking: 108

Star player: Winger Abdelmajid Djae of Dijon

Are Comoros a viable long shot for AFCON 2025?

Comoros made a major statement when they qualified as group leaders and did not lose a game. They accumulated 12 points from 6 games, two more than Tunisia, scoring seven goals while conceding four.

Some of their notable results included a 1-0 win over Tunisia, 2-1 victory past The Gambia and 1-0 triumph over Madagascar.

This will be Comoros’ second AFCON but with a squad full of players born and raised in France, they pose real danger to Group A rivals Morocco, Mali and Zambia and their best performance will be a Round of 16, just like in 2021, but winning it is out of the question.

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Uganda

Best AFCON performance: Second in 1978

Current FIFA world ranking: 85

Star player: Attacking midfielder Allan Okello of Vipers SC

Are Uganda a viable long shot for AFCON 2025?

Uganda had a near flawless AFCON 2025 qualification campaign that saw them lose just one match and finish second in their group with 13 points while leaders South Africa had 14.

The Cranes scored eight and conceded five goals with their 2-2 draw with South Africa, when they came from a goal down, a key highlight while their only loss was against Bafana Bafana (2-1). They won the other four games.

However, when Uganda were truly tested in recent matches, they crumbled, losing to Algeria, Morocco and Senegal in their last six matches and with Tunisia, Nigeria and Tanzania in the same group, they stand a slim chance of making the Round of 16, leave alone winning AFCON 2025.

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Zimbabwe

Best AFCON performance: Never gone beyond group stage

Current FIFA world ranking: 129

Star player: Wolves defensive midfileder Marshall Munetsi

Are Zimbabwe a viable long shot for AFCON 2025?

Zimbabwe are returning since 2021 for their sixth AFCON and after a group stage exit in the five previous spells.

The Warriors finished second in a qualification group that was won by Cameroon (14) points while they had nine after two wins, two draws and a loss.  

With Egypt, South Africa and Angola for company in Morocco, getting out of the group will be tough while winning it is a wild dream.

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Botswana

Best AFCON performance: Never gone beyond group stage

Current FIFA world ranking: 138

Star player: Central defender Thatayaone Ditlhokwe who plays in Libya for Al-Ittihad

Are Botswana a viable long shot for AFCON 2025?

Botswana qualified for their second AFCON since their debut in 2012 but nobody is seeing them make it out of a Group D that has Senegal, DR Congo and Benin.

They finished second in their qualification group behind Egypt, having managed eight points to 14 for the North Africans.

Winning AFCON 2025 is out of the question for Botswana.

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Who is the best team to bet on as a long shot for AFCON 2025?

Of all the 100/1 outsiders, Equatorial Guinea look like the best value long shot.

Equatorial Guinea have been to four AFCONs with a quarter-final in 2012 and 2021, fourth place in 2015 and Round of 16 in 2023 which makes them a decent team.

Equatorial Guinea have in their ranks Jesús Owono, voted best goalkeeper of group stage at AFCON 2023, and conceded no goal in three group games at the 2021 edition.

With their squad full of Spanish-born players, they are capable of finishing second in a Group E that has Algeria, Burkina Faso and Sudan and can even reach the quarter-final like on two occasions before.