Group C Qualification Permutations: What Happens to Bafana Bafana if Benin and Nigeria Draw?

As the final round of Group C fixtures approaches, the battle for qualification is set to go down to the wire. With South Africa, Benin, and Nigeria all still in contention, the permutations are complex and fascinating. Here's how each team can secure their place.

South Africa: Bafana Bafana’s Path to Progress

South Africa must beat Rwanda to stay in contention, but the margin of victory and Benin’s result against Nigeria will determine their fate.

South Africa will qualify if:

• They beat Rwanda, and Benin lose to Nigeria.
• They beat Rwanda by three or more goals, and Benin draw with Nigeria.
• They beat Rwanda by two goals, Benin draw with Nigeria, and South Africa score more goals overall than Benin.

Key Scenarios:

• South Africa win 2-0, Benin draw 2-2 → Both teams finish on 18 points, same goal difference, same goals scored. South Africa progress on head-to-head.
• South Africa win 2-0, Benin draw 1-1 or 0-0 → South Africa progress on more goals scored.
• South Africa win 2-0, Benin draw 3-3 or 4-4 → Benin progress due to more goals scored.
• South Africa win 2-0, Benin draw 3-3 → South Africa must win 3-0 or better to overturn Benin’s superior goal difference.

Benin: Squirrels Eyeing Historic Qualification

Benin are in a strong position but must avoid a heavy defeat or be outscored by South Africa.

Benin will qualify if:

• They beat Nigeria.
• They draw with Nigeria, and South Africa do not win by three or more goals.
• They draw with Nigeria, South Africa win by two goals, and Benin score more goals overall.
• They lose to Nigeria by one goal, but not 1-0 or 2-1, and South Africa fail to beat Rwanda.

Nigeria: Super Eagles’ Slim Route

Nigeria’s path is narrow but possible.

Nigeria will qualify if:

• They beat Benin 1-0, or by two or more goals, and South Africa fail to beat Rwanda.