South Africa vs Nigeria: Is Eric Chelle’s diamond viable for Super Eagles in Bloemfontein?

It was not pretty, but the Super Eagles got there in the end. Saturday’s win over Rwanda was essential to any lingering hopes of World Cup qualification; South Africa vs Nigeria on Tuesday in Bloemfontein promises to be a true blockbuster.

Bafana are six points ahead and, in a group that has seen its fair share of dysfunction, have been the team with their affairs most in order… that is, if one ignores the Teboho Mokoena situation. Hugo Broos has done a superb job of uniting the team around a familiar idea, but also of integrating the right pieces outside of the Mamelodi Sundowns-Orlando Pirates duopoly.

By contrast, Eric Chelle has found implementing his ideas a lot tougher. He has had much less time with the Super Eagles, of course, and does not have the benefit of drawing the bulk of his resources from two clubs, but he has not made things easy for himself regardless. His insistence on a diamond midfield structure has been addressed previously – the Malian has dug his heels in even further, willing to live and die by it.

With South Africa vs Nigeria looming, however, just how wise would it be to play that way against Bafana?

Why has Eric Chelle’s diamond disappointed so far?

The pros, such as they are, are greatly outweighed by the cons.

Every tactical structure has an inbuilt weakness, even outside of execution, that must be accounted for. The 4-diamond-2 is not uniquely egregious in that regard. However, more than most shapes, its shortcomings are glaringly obvious and easy to plan for.

Perhaps the most obvious example of a successful diamond in the last 25 years is Carlo Ancelotti’s AC Milan, who reached three UEFA Champions League finals in five years, winning two. However, for all their European prowess, they were notoriously underwhelming in Serie A – more opponents knew what to expect, and were able to neutralise the diamond by sitting deep and compact laterally.

And that is the greatest downfall of playing that shape: due to the lack of natural width, it can look very toothless and turgid against unambitious opponents. If watching Chelle’s Super Eagles during this series has been a chore, it is precisely because the opposition’s focus for the most part has been containment.

In March, Zimbabwe showed some attacking intent in spells, and so Nigeria actually had a decent volume of chances in the first half, but when they properly hunkered down, the match descended into a real slog. Rwanda, over two legs, had very little to show, and so both matches were eyesores.

If, however, the diamond is likelier to flourish against sides that play openly, then South Africa vs Nigeria should be perfect for it, yes?

Not necessarily.

Bafana under no pressure to win South Africa vs Nigeria

The elephant in the room is that Bafana do not actually need to win on Tuesday. The onus is all on Nigeria.

The 1996 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) winners have a six-point advantage as it stands, and so a draw in Bloemfontein would leave them needing only a draw from their final two qualifiers – against bottom-of-the-table Zimbabwe and Rwanda – to progress to the World Cup.

Even if, as Super Eagles fans everywhere hope, FIFA comes through with a points deduction for the Mokoena incident, a draw would still serve them just fine. They hold the aces, but with no obligation on their part to make the play.

What’s worse: if they did decide to attack, Broos actually has experience facing Chelle’s  diamond from the last AFCON. There, in charge of Mali, the 47-year-old prevailed, but South Africa were in fact the better side early on, carving the Eagles open time and again through the wide areas and winning a penalty. It was only after Percy Tau missed that Bafana seemed to deflate, and Mali won thanks to a set-piece and a transition.

Perhaps, with the benefit of better attackers, Chelle will be once again able to rely on moments. However, unlike last January, he will not be coming up against an opponent willing to force the issue. South Africa vs Nigeria promises to be a war of attrition; for the sake of the Super Eagles’ World Cup hopes, hopefully his diamond comes out of it unscathed.