What do the Super Eagles need to reach the 2026 World Cup?

Group C of Africa’s World Cup qualifiers has tilted into fresh uncertainty, and the Super Eagles find themselves still in the race. Nigeria’s patchy run had left them on the brink, but following FIFA's ruling on Monday, the table now offers a narrow escape route, one that demands perfection from them and slips from their rivals.

The three time AFCON winners sit third on 11 points, three behind both Benin and South Africa, who share top spot on 14. Only the winner of the group will qualify directly for the World Cup, while the runners-up face a lottery where just four of ten will advance to the intercontinental playoffs. The margins could not be finer.

The assignment is brutally clear is for Eric Chelle’s men, beat Lesotho away and Benin at home to reach 17 points. Anything less and the race is lost. But even maximum points will not be enough unless their rivals falter.

Super Eagles World Cup dream: The direct route vs. the Playoff route

For South Africa to be overtaken, they must drop points; either two draws or a single defeat, while Nigeria win both games and finish with a stronger goal difference. South Africa’s final matches are against Zimbabwe and Rwanda, fixtures where slip-ups cannot be assumed but remain possible.

Benin’s path is trickier for Nigeria to navigate. The Super Eagles must beat the Gernot Rohr-coached side in Uyo, which would hand them one of the dropped results required. Ideally, Benin also fail to win their penultimate fixture against Rwanda, leaving Nigeria the chance to pull level on points and decide the race on goal difference. Should both finish on 17, it will be fine margins, every goal scored or conceded in October could decide who books a ticket to North America.

If neither rival stumbles, Nigeria’s best hope will be second place and entry into the CAF runners-up playoff pool. There, only four of the ten second-placed teams will progress, ranked on points and goal difference, with adjustments made to ensure fairness across uneven groups. Nigeria’s earlier dropped points against Lesotho could yet prove decisive, unless FIFA’s precedent of discounting results against bottom teams plays in their favour.

The permutations are messy, but the Super Eagles’ task is simple in essence: win both matches, and wait. Without six points, all calculations collapse, and another World Cup could slip from reach.