AFCON 2025: Group A and B Permutations Ahead of Decisive Fixtures

As the Africa Cup of Nations group stage reaches its climax, the final round of matches in Group A and Group B promises drama, tension, and complex qualification scenarios. Here’s how the permutations stand.

Group A: Zambia, Morocco, Mali, Comoros

Zambia vs Morocco

• Morocco qualify with a win or draw.
• Group winners: Morocco will top the group if they avoid defeat and Mali fail to win.
• Zambia qualify with a win.
• Safety net: Even with a loss, Morocco could still progress as one of the best third-placed teams.

Comoros vs Mali

• Mali qualify with a win.
• Mali with a draw: They can still qualify if Morocco defeat Zambia.
• Comoros’ path: To finish in the top two, Comoros must win and hope Zambia fail to beat Morocco.
• Complicated scenario: If Comoros win and Morocco lose, Comoros will have to wait to see if they advance as a best third-placed team.

Group B: Egypt, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Angola

Egypt have already secured top spot as Group B winners, leaving the other three sides to battle for survival.

Zimbabwe vs South Africa

• South Africa qualify with a draw.
• Zimbabwe qualify with a win if Angola do not win.
• Tiebreak drama: If both Zimbabwe and Angola win, they’ll be level on four points, and progression will be decided by tiebreaking criteria (goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head).

Angola vs Egypt

• Angola qualify with a win if Zimbabwe also win. In this case, tiebreakers will determine who advances.
• Angola win + South Africa draw: South Africa progress, while Angola must wait to see if they qualify as a best third-placed team.
• Angola win + South Africa win: Angola again face the uncertainty of best third-place qualification.

 What It All Means

• Group A is delicately poised: Morocco are favorites to advance, but Zambia and Comoros both have slim but realistic hopes depending on results elsewhere.
• Group B is a minefield of permutations: South Africa hold the advantage, Zimbabwe need victory, and Angola’s fate hinges not only on their own result but also on others.