Arsenal vs Manchester City: Preview, predictions, team news as Eze aims to end Gunners 6-year trophy drought

Arsenal head into Sunday’s Carabao Cup final at Wembley Stadium in the form of their lives — unbeaten across 14 matches in all competitions, nine points clear at the top of the Premier League and fresh from booking a Champions League quarter-final place against Sporting CP.

This is the biggest game of Mikel Arteta’s tenure as Gunners manager. Six years without a trophy is a long time for a club of Arsenal’s ambitions, and this is a very winnable chance to end that wait.

Manchester City arrive at Wembley carrying the weight of a troubled season. A 5-1 aggregate collapse against Real Madrid in the Champions League last 16 left the squad visibly shaken, and Pep Guardiola’s side have managed only one win in five games since.

That said, the Carabao Cup is the one competition City have absolutely dominated under Guardiola — four consecutive wins between 2018 and 2021 — and the prospect of a fifth title, and a first trophy to salvage an otherwise forgettable campaign, will sharpen minds considerably. For both managers, this cup final means something beyond the 90 minutes.

Match Analysis

Arsenal are, by any measure, the team in better shape heading into this final. In the Premier League, Arteta’s side sit on 70 points from 31 games — 21 wins, seven draws, three defeats — and have conceded just 22 goals all season.

That is the best defensive record in the division, and the numbers only strengthen when you consider they have kept 25 clean sheets in 49 matches across all competitions in 2025/26.

The 3-1 aggregate victory over Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League last 16 — sealed by a 2-0 win at the Emirates, with goals from Eberechi Eze and Declan Rice — demonstrated a team that can deliver on the big occasions.

Arsenal also became only the third club in history, after Barcelona and Bayern Munich, to reach 100 goals in a season across all competitions. The confidence running through this squad is not manufactured: it is earned.

City’s cup road to Wembley was, in isolation, impressive: they beat Huddersfield Town (2-0), Swansea City (3-1) and Brentford (2-0) before dismantling Newcastle United 5-1 on aggregate in the semi-finals, with Omar Marmoush and Tijjani Reijnders both outstanding in the second leg.

But context matters. Those wins came in a very different City side to the one that has stuttered in the weeks since. The elimination against Real Madrid — Bernardo Silva sent off in the second leg, the team unable to reverse a 3-0 first-leg deficit — has cast a long shadow. Guardiola has won a trophy in every season of his managerial career bar one. This is the last realistic chance of breaking that pattern in 2025/26.

Arsenal’s path to the final was harder-fought. Port Vale, Brighton, Crystal Palace (won on penalties) and Chelsea — beaten 4-2 on aggregate in the semi-finals — all fell to the Gunners. Kai Havertz’s 96th-minute goal in the second leg against Chelsea to clinch the tie was the kind of moment that tells you a team is destined to go deep.

Head-to-Head Record

The numbers have shifted sharply in Arsenal’s favour. The Gunners are unbeaten in their last six meetings against City — three wins, three draws — ending what had been a near-decade of City dominance over them.

For context, Arsenal lost 15 of 16 encounters against Guardiola’s side over several years before this recent run. The switch in momentum is significant, and Arteta’s players know it.

Since Arteta left Guardiola’s coaching staff at City to take over at Arsenal in December 2019, the two managers have met 15 times: Guardiola leads eight wins to Arteta’s four, with three draws.

The psychological dynamic is fascinating. Arteta has spoken openly about what he learned under Guardiola and how he has applied — and in some areas deliberately moved away from — those principles. The student-teacher dynamic is one of the sub-plots that gives this final an extra layer.

Their most recent league meeting, in September at the Emirates, ended 1-1. Guardiola’s City surprised many by sitting deep in a low block rather than trying to play through Arsenal — a concession, in a sense, of just how much the power balance has shifted. In the Carabao Cup specifically, City beat Arsenal 3-0 in the 2018 final. The Gunners hold the unwanted record of most Carabao Cup final defeats, with six. This final is a chance to improve that record — and how.

Team News

Arsenal received the key fitness update they needed when Eberechi Eze confirmed he would be available after leaving the Leverkusen match with an ankle concern.

Speaking to TNT Sports after the final whistle, Eze was straightforward: “Yeah, I’m alright. I’ll be okay.” Mikel Merino is out for the season following foot surgery, and Martin Odegaard (knee) and Jurrien Timber (ankle) are both rated as doubts, though both are expected to be fit enough for a place on the bench at least. Ben White is working his way back and could feature.

Kepa Arrizabalaga will start in goal — he has kept goal in every single one of Arsenal’s Carabao Cup matches this season, and there is no reason to deviate from that now, regardless of David Raya’s outstanding league form. Bukayo Saka’s goal contributions have dried up slightly over the past four matches, but 16 direct goal involvements in 2025/26 (nine goals, seven assists) tells the bigger story.

Arsenal (probable lineup)

Kepa; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapié; Rice, Zubimendi, Eze; Saka, Havertz, Trossard

4-3-3

Man City (probable lineup)

Trafford; Nunes, Dias, Khusanov, Aït-Nouri; Rodri, O’Reilly; Bernardo Silva, Reijnders, Cherki; Haaland

4-2-3

Manchester City are without Joško Gvardiol for the rest of the season after a fractured tibia in January, and Marc Guéhi cannot play having already represented another club in this season’s competition.

James Trafford has been confirmed as the starting goalkeeper throughout City’s cup run. Erling Haaland has 30 goals for the season overall but is going through a lean spell — four goals in his last 10 outings — and has not scored in this season’s Carabao Cup. Mateo Kovačić returns to the squad after a lengthy injury absence. Guardiola will not serve any suspension for this fixture — his ban from yellow-card accumulation does not carry into the Carabao Cup.

The Managers

Arsenal

Mikel Arteta

The Spaniard has built Arsenal into genuine title contenders across three consecutive campaigns. His only silverware as Gunners manager remains the FA Cup in 2020, but the squad — in terms of depth, consistency and tactical sophistication — is far beyond what it was then. Arteta has been particularly impressive in managing City’s set-piece threats while creating his own.

Manchester City

Pep Guardiola

Guardiola has never gone two consecutive seasons without a trophy in management. After a trophyless 2024/25, the Carabao Cup is his last realistic chance to preserve that record this term.

His relationship with the competition is special: four consecutive wins from 2018 to 2021, and a fifth would make him the outright record holder. A decision on his future at the club is expected in the week after the final.

Tactical Analysis

Arsenal will operate in their established 4-3-3. Rice and Martin Zubimendi form a deeply complementary double pivot — Rice with the athletic energy and late runs, Zubimendi with his positional intelligence and recycling of possession — while Eze is given licence to drift and find pockets between the lines. Set pieces are Arsenal’s most dangerous weapon: they equalled the Premier League record for corner goals in a single season with 16, and William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes are both genuine aerial threats at both ends.

City will likely set up in a 4-2-3-1, with Rodri and Nico O’Reilly anchoring in front of the back four and Bernardo Silva, Reijnders and Rayan Cherki rotating behind Haaland. The absence of Gvardiol weakens the left flank considerably.

Aït-Nouri is an attacking full back by nature, and that creates space in behind that Saka and Trossard will look to exploit on transition. Arsenal have made a habit of punishing precisely that kind of defensive exposure.

The question for City is whether Cherki and Reijnders — both naturally inclined to find space rather than track runners — can make it uncomfortable enough for Arsenal’s midfield to prevent them controlling the match.

Reijnders has the quality to do it, and his understanding with Haaland has grown significantly. But without Gvardiol’s defensive cover on the left, City have a structural weakness that a team as well-organised as Arsenal will identify and probe.

Cup finals at this level are frequently tight. Four of the last five Carabao Cup finals produced under 2.5 goals, and the average expected goals figure across the last six Arteta-Guardiola meetings stands at just 1.63 per game. There is no reason to expect this to be a free-flowing affair.

Betting Tips & Predictions

Arsenal are the clear favourites and, given their form and City’s current state, the value is not bad at 2.38. Beyond the outright result, there are several angles worth considering.