The Eritrea Protocol: Super Eagles’ World Cup fallback explained

The Super Eagles’ uncertain hopes of reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup may have been quietly revived. Eritrea’s withdrawal from the African qualifiers has altered the balance of the competition and, with it, the mathematics that determine which teams advance to the next stage.

By pulling out before the start of the campaign, Eritrea left Group E with only five teams instead of six. The Confederation of African Football (CAF) is expected to repeat a familiar rule from the 2012 qualifiers, where results against the bottom sides in six-team groups were not counted when ranking the best runners-up.

If that standard is applied again, the West African giant's position could improve. The Super Eagles have stumbled in their own qualifying group, dropping points to Lesotho and Zimbabwe, but a reshaped ranking system could give them a second chance.

Lesotho vs Nigeria: Osimhen assist carries Super Eagles to nervy, underwhelming victory — Photo by Icon Sport

Where Super Eagles stand in the race for World Cup playoffs

When the lowest-placed teams are excluded, Gabon currently lead the race for the playoff slots with 16 points. Burkina Faso follow with 15 points and a goal difference of +6, while Niger, who have also completed their fixtures, sit just behind with the same total but a slimmer goal difference.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Gabon — Photo by IMAGO

Cameroon are fourth on 14 points, with one match still to play and a healthy goal difference of +9. DR Congo remain in contention with 13 points from one game fewer and a +4 margin.

For Nigeria, the equation is tight but not impossible. A four-goal victory over Benin in Uyo would be enough to overtake Burkina Faso and edge into the playoff bracket. They could also benefit if either Cameroon or DR Congo fail to win their remaining games. And if Eric Chelle’s men beat Benin while South Africa drop points in their final outing, a direct ticket to North America would still be within reach.

The Super Eagles return to the Godswill Akpabio Stadium on Tuesday knowing that this may be their last real opening. The permutations are complex, but the message is simple: win big, and hope the rest falls into place.