AFCON 2025: How quarter-final lineup demolishes age-old myth

The final eight at the ongoing Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON 2025) is now known. Host nation Morocco remain favourites just about, but a stacked field featuring Egypt, Cameroon, Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, Algeria, Senegal and Mali promises the most riveting denouement.

It also, interestingly, dispels a long-held notion about this competition.

AFCON has always prided itself on its unpredictability. In truth, tournament football can lend itself to upsets; this fact is universal. However, even within that broader understanding, Africa’s premier international competition has sought to stand apart, promising surprises to an even greater degree and/or frequency.

That, however, has not been borne out by events in Morocco. The tournament has been marked by the total absence of upset outcomes. This has culminated in the present reality: all six group winners made it through to the last eight, and the quarter-final lineup is made up, exclusively, of sides in Africa’s top 10 (per the FIFA ranking). Never mind unpredictability: this has been an AFCON defined by the elite.

It’s closing in. Now down to eight. 🏆

Who makes the semi-finals?#TotalEnergiesAFCON2025 | @1xBet_Eng pic.twitter.com/FwqPHPEVUT

— TotalEnergies AFCON 2025 (@CAF_Online) January 6, 2026

Why have there been so few upsets at AFCON 2025?

In truth, the lack of unpredictability at this edition was, ironically, very predictable coming in.

AFCON 2025 is peculiar in many ways. 

Most obvious is the timing of it: kicking off in December, for the first time ever, teams have been exposed to a very different climate than is typical for the competition. This has led to a cold, rainy AFCON for the most part, as opposed to the dry, sunny weather that would usually obtain.

In addition, Morocco have pulled out all the stops in hosting the tournament. The quality of infrastructure – facilities, playing surfaces, travel logistics, etc. – has been truly unprecedented, and this has created an almost sterile, sanitised environment, one in which the football alone is relevant to outcomes.

As I said on @TheHindsightPod, #AFCON2025 is the closest we will ever get to controlled, lab conditions for the Cup of Nations. That makes this tournament simultaneously fascinating to watch and less exciting (for me, at least).

If nothing else, we will finally be able to… https://t.co/Z5SJ2GazRR

— Solace Chukwu (@TheOddSolace) December 21, 2025

Free from the worries of awkward bounces, sweltering heat and inconvenient travel, the big sides have been able to parlay their superior quality – sourced from Europe, where the conditions are identical – into results consistently.

This proves, with little doubt, that much of what was believed about the AFCON was mostly down to environmental and socio-economic factors, rather than any inherent, unique quirk of African football.