Hull City vs Millwall preview, team news, h2h, predictions: Ajayi vs Azeez in play-off

Hull City host Millwall at the MKM Stadium on Friday in the Championship play-off semi-final first leg, with both clubs having three wins from the Premier League, Afrik Foot reports.

Sergej Jakirovic’s side only secured sixth on the final day, with Oli McBurnie’s brace in a 2-1 win over Norwich City pipping Wrexham by two points after operating under a transfer embargo all season.

Millwall finished third on a club-record 83 points and missed automatic promotion by a single point, after Ipswich Town’s win over Queens Park Rangers nudged the Lions into the play-offs.

Alex Neil’s side return to The Den for the second leg on Monday, May 11, with the Wembley final scheduled for Saturday, May 23. Millwall have never played a Premier League fixture in their history.

For Nigerian fans, the Super Eagles subplot is the hook. Hull have AFCON 2025 silver medallist Semi Ajayi at the back; Millwall have winger Femi Azeez, who has reportedly agreed to switch his international allegiance to Nigeria. Azeez ended the regular season as the highest-rated player in the entire Championship on WhoScored.

Hull City vs Millwall match preview

Hull’s path to the play-offs has been built under conditions other Championship clubs would not have survived. Jakirovic took over in June 2025 with the brief of avoiding another relegation scrap, and the club entered the season under a transfer embargo that limited recruitment to free agents and loan signings.

The Bosnian himself targeted a top 10 finish, with 10th to 15th considered realistic. Free signing McBurnie from Sheffield United and Leeds loanee Joe Gelhardt ended the season as the spine of a top-six campaign no outside observer predicted.

The run-in was bumpy. Hull went six matches without a win before McBurnie’s brace against Norwich, and lost three of their last seven home games, including damaging home defeats to Bristol City and Queens Park Rangers.

The underlying numbers are not pretty. Hull’s expected points total of 54.87 is comfortably the lowest of the four play-off teams, and across their last eight league fixtures, they ranked 22nd in the Championship for xPTS, averaging 1.04 expected goals while conceding 1.38 expected goals against per game.

Home form is mixed. Hull won 11 of 23 league games at the MKM but enter unbeaten in their last four there, with the Norwich win the only victory in their last seven Championship fixtures.

Millwall enter unbeaten in five (W3 D2). Their season profile is built on the road: 41 points from 23 trips was the Championship’s best away return, and 24 goals conceded away was the best defensive record on the road in the entire division.

The Lions have spent only two seasons in England’s top flight, both before the Premier League era, finishing 10th in 1988-89 before being relegated in 20th place the following year. Hull and Middlesbrough were both last in the Premier League in 2016-17, while Southampton are seeking an immediate return.

Millwall’s late-season data is also a concern. Their xPTS of 6.53 across the last eight matches was the worst in the Championship, with an expected goal difference of minus 0.48 across the same period.

The market reflects all of it. Millwall are 7/5 for the first leg, Hull 11/5, with the draw 23/10. The outright play-off favourite is Southampton at 9/4, ahead of Middlesbrough (5/2), Millwall (13/5) and Hull (7/1).

Hull City vs Millwall head-to-head record

The two clubs have met 17 times across the last nine seasons. Hull have won six, Millwall five, with six draws. The aggregate score reads 19-18 in Hull’s favour at an average of 2.18 goals per game.

Both teams scored in 10 of those 17 fixtures (58.8%), with nine producing over 2.5 goals. Millwall have won the last two league meetings.

Both league fixtures this season finished 3-1 to the away side. Hull won at The Den on December 13, 2025, with a Kyle Joseph double and an Oli McBurnie goal, with Aidomo Emakhu’s late penalty pulling one back for the Lions, who finished the game with 10 men after Femi Azeez was sent off.

Millwall reversed the result at the MKM on March 7, 2026. Jake Cooper opened from a set piece, Joe Gelhardt equalised, and Mihailo Ivanovic restored Millwall’s lead before they sealed it late on. That afternoon also marked Semi Ajayi’s first appearance since December after his hamstring injury at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco.

One stat the Hull camp may cling to: they had been unbeaten in seven previous meetings between the clubs heading into that March defeat, including a 1-0 home win in February 2024 and the 3-1 win at The Den in December.

Hull City vs Millwall team news

Hull’s preparations have been hampered by a deep injury list. Cody Drameh remains sidelined with a quadriceps problem, and Manchester United loanee Toby Collyer is set to miss the rest of the play-offs with an ankle injury.

Captain Lewie Coyle returns from his own ankle issue, while Eliot Matazo continues to build minutes after a year out with an anterior cruciate ligament injury and is unlikely to feature here. Matt Crooks is available again after serving the two-match ban triggered by his 10th yellow card of the season at Ipswich Town in March.

Ajayi’s situation is the one Nigerian fans will track most closely. The 32-year-old former West Bromwich Albion centre-back has played 13 league matches this season but Charlie Hughes and John Egan have started the bulk of the run-in, leaving Jakirovic with a real selection call. Ajayi’s 6ft 4in frame matters specifically against Millwall’s set-piece threat from Cooper, Crama and Ivanovic.

McBurnie remains the focal point in attack. The 29-year-old Scotland international’s two-goal display against Norwich extended his tally to 17 league goals for the season, comfortably Hull’s top scorer. He registered at least one shot on target in 24 of his 32 full Championship starts (75%), but failed to hit the target in either league meeting with Millwall this term.

Millwall are in a healthier state. Daniel Kelly is the only long-term absentee with a hamstring problem, Will Smallbone has returned to the squad after his own injury, and Josh Coburn is working back from a hip issue.

Mihailo Ivanovic is expected to lead the line, with Femi Azeez carrying the threat from wide areas after his brace against Oxford United on the final day. Captain Jake Cooper anchors the back four alongside Tristan Crama, with Sunderland loanee Anthony Patterson between the posts.

Hull City predicted XI (4-2-3-1)

Pandur; Coyle, Egan, Hughes, Giles; Slater, Crooks; Belloumi, Gelhardt, Millar; McBurnie

Millwall predicted XI (4-2-3-1)

Patterson; Leonard, Cooper, Crama, Sturge; de Norre, Bannan; Azeez, Neghli, Ballo; Ivanovic

Oliver McBurnie, the 29-year-old Scotland international, is the more orthodox of the pair. The former Sheffield United striker scored 17 league goals from 32 starts to finish as Hull’s top scorer, and was named EFL Championship Player of the Month for September.

Oluwafemi ‘Femi’ Azeez is the more decorated of the two heading into the play-offs. The 24-year-old combined 11 goals with eight assists across 35 league appearances, ended the regular season as the highest-rated player in the entire Championship on WhoScored at 7.31, and was named in the Championship Team of the Season. The London-born forward, who has a Nigerian father and a Spanish mother, has reportedly committed to representing the Super Eagles, with reports indicating Eric Chelle and the Nigeria Football Federation have already agreed terms with the player and his representatives.

Hull City vs Millwall: The managers

Sergej Jakirovic arrived at the MKM Stadium in June 2025 in his first job in English football. Hull triggered a settlement clause to prise him from Turkish side Kayserispor, where he had taken a side hovering above the relegation zone in January 2025 to a 12th-place finish eight points clear of trouble.

His CV before that includes the Bosnian Premier League title with Zrinjski Mostar (2021-22) and the Croatian top flight with Dinamo Zagreb (2023-24). In April 2026 he was nominated for EFL Championship manager of the year.

Before the run-in, he told reporters he did not feel any pressure: ‘Ninety minutes plus five to six additional time. That’s it. And then go home. Take one beer and go home.’ Hull’s December trip to Middlesbrough captured his pragmatism: three weeks after losing 4-1 at home to Boro, Jakirovic switched to a back five, won 1-0 at the Riverside, and delivered the most pointed tactical statement of his half-season.

Alex Neil arrived at The Den in December 2024 with the club 12th. He finished eighth in his half-season, and now has Millwall on a club-record 83 points. The 44-year-old Scot took Norwich up via the 2014-15 play-offs and Sunderland out of League One in 2021-22.

Squawka analysis ranked Millwall third in the Championship for fewest passes allowed per defensive action (11.2 PPDA) and second for aerial duels won in their own defensive third. The profile is built on out-running and out-fighting opponents rather than out-passing them: 46.7% average possession and the second-lowest pass accuracy in the division (71.5%).

Hull City vs Millwall tactical preview

Both sides line up in 4-2-3-1, but the styles diverge sharply. Hull conceded 66 league goals across the season — the worst record of the four play-off sides — while Millwall conceded 49, the fewest of the four.

Millwall do not fuss about possession. They average 46.7% ball share, attempt the third-most long balls per game in the division, and average the longest goal-kicks at 59 metres. They press aggressively (11.2 PPDA) and look to win second balls before turning long throw-ins and set pieces into shots.

That profile points squarely at Hull’s clearest weakness. Opponents have generated 4.97 expected goals from set-piece situations against the Tigers across the last eight league matches, the 19th-worst record in the division during that period.

Cooper, Crama and the 1.87m Ivanovic make Millwall a serious aerial threat, with both centre-backs having scored multiple league goals from set pieces this season. That makes Ajayi’s potential return — and his 1.93m frame — a more concrete tactical question than a routine recall: without him, Hughes (1.85m) and Egan (1.85m) cede height in the box.

Hull’s route in is the transition. Liam Millar’s pace, Mohamed Belloumi’s running between the lines and Gelhardt’s 14 league goals all need space behind the back four. Millwall sit deeper away from The Den than they do at home, which should suit Jakirovic’s counter-attacking instincts.

One open question is whether Jakirovic switches to a back five, as he did against Middlesbrough at the Riverside in December. The trade-off is real: an extra centre-back blunts Millwall’s set-piece threat but cuts Hull’s attacking output in a tie they cannot afford to draw 0-0 at home.

Millwall will likely target Azeez against whichever Hull full-back ends up at right-back, with Coyle returning from injury and Slater an option to fill in. Hull’s midfield press has to land on Casper de Norre and Barry Bannan to prevent the long-ball entries to Ivanovic.

Hull City vs Millwall betting tips and predictions

Hull City vs Millwall score prediction

The two reverse fixtures this season produced six goals and matching 3-1 scorelines. The underlying numbers across both clubs’ last eight games support a high-event match: Hull have conceded 1.38 expected goals against per game in that stretch, Millwall 1.89.

Millwall finished 10 points clear of Hull and have the away record to match, with the league-leading 41 points and joint-best defensive return on the road. Hull’s best route is to make the first leg uncomfortable physically and avoid handing Neil’s side a 0-0 to defend at The Den.

The expectation here is for both teams to score and Millwall to take a slim advantage to the second leg. McBurnie has not registered a shot on target in either league meeting with Millwall this season, but with nine of his last 10 games producing at least one shot on target, that streak should end.

Even a one-goal first-leg deficit leaves Hull alive for The Den on Monday night. The Tigers stumbled into the play-offs, but they have already built one of the season’s defining stories on the back of late goals and tight margins.

For Nigerian fans, the Super Eagles thread is the unique angle. Ajayi, the AFCON 2025 silver medallist, and Azeez, the 24-year-old who has reportedly committed to Nigeria, sit on opposite sides of a tie that will end with one of them in a Premier League shirt next August.