Supercomputer simulation reveals how Nigeria might have fared at the 2022 FIFA World Cup

The absence of the Nigerian national football team from the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar remains one of the biggest disappointments for African football, alongside missing the 2026 edition of the Mundial.

The three-time African Champions narrowly missed out on qualification after losing to the Ghana national football team on away goals during the final playoff round, allowing the Black Stars to secure the continent’s last ticket to Qatar.

But how might Nigeria have performed if they had made it to the tournament instead?

Using match data and tournament simulations, a supercomputer projection suggests that the three-time African champions could have been competitive in the group stage and even stood a realistic chance of reaching the knockout rounds.

Nigeria’s predicted Group Stage games

Had Nigeria qualified for the tournament, they would likely have taken Ghana’s place in Group H, alongside Portugal, Uruguay, and South Korea.

Ghana’s actual results in that group provide a useful reference point for the simulation.

The Black Stars lost 3–2 to Portugal in their group opener, defeated South Korea 3–2, and fell 2–0 to Uruguay, finishing with three points and exiting the competition in the group stage.

Cristiano Ronaldo makes history as Portugal beat Ghana in a five-goal thriller! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/A8Rhz95U1L

— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) November 24, 2022

However, statistical modelling suggests Nigeria might have produced slightly different outcomes.

Potential results for the Super Eagles

Against Portugal, the simulation predicts that Nigeria would have struggled against the European giants led by Cristiano Ronaldo, though the Super Eagles’ pace in attack could have kept the contest close.

The clash against South Korea would likely have been Nigeria’s most winnable fixture. With attacking options such as Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman offering speed and finishing quality, the Super Eagles might have secured three points against a lacklustre Korean side.

The final group game against Uruguay would have been decisive. Facing experienced stars like Luis Suárez and Federico Valverde, Nigeria would have needed at least a draw to keep qualification hopes alive.

Knockout stage possibilities

According to the simulation, Nigeria could have finished the group stage with around four points, placing them in strong contention for a Round of 16 spot, depending on goal difference.

Such an outcome would have marked a positive return for the Super Eagles, who last reached the knockout stage of the World Cup at the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil, led by the late Stephen Keshi as they bowed out to France.

While simulations cannot perfectly predict tournament outcomes, the analysis highlights how competitive Nigeria might have been in Qatar.

For many fans, the “what if” surrounding the Super Eagles’ absence will remain a lingering question.

While Ghana didn’t make it past the group stage, Morocco soared, becoming the first African country to reach the semi-final of a FIFA World Cup tournament.