2023 African Footballer of the Year Victor Osimhen is enduring an uncharacteristically poor finishing season, and the numbers paint a worrying picture.
The Galatasaray striker has scored 15 goals across the league and Europa League this term, but a third of those have come from the penalty spot, his highest single-season tally from the spot to date.
For a player renowned for his sharpness in front of goal, the stats suggest otherwise this campaign. Osimhen has missed 28 big chances in 19 matches (according to Opta) across both competitions, making it his worst-ever season in terms of efficiency.
While penalties have padded his goal tally, the Nigerian’s inability to convert routine opportunities has been glaring.
Is Osimhen gradually becoming a penalty merchant?
Before the 2024/25 season, the FIFA U-17 Men’s World Cup goal king had scored just seven penalties across eight seasons with Wolfsburg, Charleroi, Lille, and Napoli.
However, he has already scored five this season for Galatasaray, nearly doubling his previous seasonal best.
To further contextualize this shift, Osimhen's 114 non-penalty goals in those eight seasons highlight a striker previously reliant on open play for his goals. Now, his growing dependence on penalties raises questions about his form.
His last open-play goal came over a month ago, in a league match against Göztepe on December 22, 2024. For a forward of his caliber, often mentioned in the same breath as Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé, and Lautaro Martínez, such a drought is concerning.
This season, despite playing 1,446 minutes, his goal conversion rate has dropped to a modest 12%.
With 84 shots inside the box yielding just 15 goals, the inefficiency is staggering for a striker of his reputation.
Impact on Osimhen’s future prospects
This alarming finishing form could deter potential suitors. Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United, PSG, and Barcelona have all been linked to Osimhen, but his recent struggles might cause hesitation.
The Nigerian’s 2022/23 campaign, where he netted 31 goals (including just two penalties) for Napoli, showcased a striker at the peak of his powers. However, the stark drop in efficiency this season raises doubts about his ability to replicate that level consistently.
Even his follow-up season at Napoli (2023/24) was respectable, with 17 goals (three penalties) in 32 games. But his current form, despite the goals is unlikely to inspire confidence among Europe’s elite clubs.
Despite his struggles, Osimhen’s work rate and movement remain elite. He’s won 14 aerial duels in the Europa League and regularly puts defenders under pressure. But for a forward expected to lead the line at the highest level, finishing remains the most critical aspect of his game.
The towering striker still has time to turn things around this season, but unless his open-play numbers improve, his legacy as one of Africa’s greatest forwards could face scrutiny. Penalties alone cannot mask what has been the worst finishing season of his career.
