Super Eagles: Why Nigeria are behind Guinea-Bissau despite beating Madagascar in AFCONQ

Nigeria’s Super Eagles opened their 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign with a 2-1 comeback victory over Madagascar in Uyo on Friday evening, Afrik-Foot reports.

However, the three-time African champions still find themselves behind Guinea-Bissau in Group L. The reason is goal difference.

Guinea-Bissau produced the more emphatic result earlier on Friday, defeating Tanzania 2-0 at the New Amaan Complex in Zanzibar. Franculino Djú opened the scoring in the 33rd minute before Mama Baldé doubled the advantage in the 58th minute.

Eric Chelle-tutored Nigeria, meanwhile, had to fight from behind at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium after Madagascar struck first through El Hadari Kari in the 16th minute. George Ilenikhena levelled in first-half stoppage time before Moses Usor completed the turnaround in the 65th minute.

Both victories delivered three points, but Guinea-Bissau’s two-goal margin gives them a +2 goal difference compared with Nigeria’s +1.

That leaves Guinea-Bissau top of the early Group L table and Nigeria second, with Madagascar and Tanzania behind them after their opening defeats.

The standings carry unusual weight because Tanzania are one of the three co-hosts of AFCON 2027 alongside Kenya and Uganda. Tanzania, therefore, have automatic qualification, meaning the other three nations in Group L are effectively fighting for a single additional ticket to the finals.

Super Eagles’ next match could change everything

The Super Eagles have an immediate opportunity to erase the deficit when they travel to face Guinea-Bissau on Tuesday, September 29.

The fixture was already significant before the opening results, but Guinea-Bissau’s 2-0 victory over Tanzania has turned it into an early battle for control of the group.

A Super Eagles victory against Guinea-Bissau in Morocco would take Eric Chelle’s side to six points from two matches and leave their hosts on three. It would also give Nigeria a crucial head-to-head advantage in the race for the only qualifying position available to a non-host in Group L.

Guinea-Bissau, however, will enter the contest with confidence after scoring twice against Tanzania without conceding.

Madagascar will travel to face Tanzania on the same day, creating another potentially important result in a group where every point could carry substantial weight.

The qualification schedule gives Nigeria six matches across the campaign, with Matchdays 1 and 2 taking place in September, the next two rounds scheduled for November, and the final two fixtures set for March 2027.