Trabzonspor vs Genclerbirligi preview, prediction, h2h: Onuachu seeks to succeed Osimhen

Trabzonspor bring the curtain down on their Super Lig season at Papara Park on Sunday, welcoming a Genclerbirligi side whose top-flight survival hangs in the balance heading into the final day, Afrik-Foot reports.

The Black Sea Storm have already secured third place and a return to European competition, sitting on 69 points with their league campaign wrapped up in comfortable fashion under Fatih Tekke.

For the visitors, however, this is a fixture that carries the weight of their entire season, with Metin Diyadin’s side needing maximum points to guarantee survival in their first campaign back in the Super Lig after four years away.

These two clubs met in midweek as well, contesting a Turkish Cup semi-final which Trabzonspor won 2-1 to book their place in the final against Konyaspor, adding yet another layer of intrigue to Sunday’s league encounter.

Match preview

Trabzonspor’s season has been one of steady improvement under Tekke, with the former club legend guiding the Black Sea Storm from a disappointing seventh-place finish last term to a guaranteed Europa League qualifying berth at minimum.

A large part of that progress can be attributed to the remarkable form of Paul Onuachu, the Super Lig’s leading scorer with 22 goals in 33 league appearances, a tally that puts him only one clear of his nearest challenger (Eldor Shomurodov of Istanbul Basaksehir).

Tekke’s side have lost just four times in 33 league matches this season, and their home record has been particularly strong, with 33 points collected from 16 fixtures at Papara Park.

The 2-1 win at Besiktas last weekend ended a run of four matches without a victory, and that result should inject renewed confidence ahead of the final day.

With the Turkish Cup final against Konyaspor on the horizon, however, Tekke may choose to rotate his squad and rest key players, a factor that could tilt the odds slightly in the visitors’ favour.

Genclerbirligi’s return to the top flight has been a battle from start to finish.

The Wind of Ankara were promoted after four years in the lower divisions, and a season that has included managerial upheaval, relegation scraps and a fairytale Turkish Cup run has come down to this final afternoon.

They currently occupy the last safe spot in the table, but their position is far from secure, with Antalyaspor breathing down their necks a mere two points behind.

If Antalyaspor win their own match on Sunday, Genclerbirligi must beat Trabzonspor to stay up, courtesy of having lost both meetings with their relegation rivals this season.

The good news for Diyadin is that his team have found some form at exactly the right moment, winning three of their last four matches across all competitions, a run that includes a memorable Turkish Cup victory at Galatasaray’s home ground.

The bad news is that Genclerbirligi’s away record is the worst in the division, with just six points collected from 16 matches on the road all season.

Head to head

These two clubs have a deep history, with 87 previous meetings across all competitions stretching back decades.

Trabzonspor hold a commanding advantage in the overall record: 49 victories to Genclerbirligi’s 15, with 23 draws.

The Black Sea Storm had been unbeaten in nine consecutive meetings against the Ankara club before the reverse fixture this season shattered that run in spectacular fashion.

That match, played at the Eryaman Stadium on December 22, will live long in the memory of Genclerbirligi supporters.

The hosts raced into a 2-0 lead inside seven minutes through Dimitrios Goutas and Metehan Mimaroglu, and Franco Tongya made it three before half time.

Trabzonspor, missing Onuachu due to Africa Cup of Nations duty, rallied through Felipe Augusto’s double, but second-half goals from Ogulcan Ulgun and Sekou Koita sealed a stunning 4-3 win for the Wind of Ankara, their first victory in this fixture since the 2015-16 season.

The midweek Turkish Cup semi-final, however, saw normal service resumed as Trabzonspor prevailed 2-1 to reach the final.

Team news

Trabzonspor

The headline absence for the hosts is Ernest Muci, who is suspended after collecting his fourth yellow card of the season. The Albanian winger has been one of Trabzonspor’s most creative outlets this term, with eight goals and seven assists in all competitions, so his loss is significant.

Tekke must also decide whether to start Onuachu, who leads the golden boot race with 22 league goals and will want to add to his tally in front of his home fans. The former Southampton striker is aiming to win the league’s topscorer award, claimed so spectacularly by compatriot Victor Osimhen last season.

However, with the Turkish Cup final just days away, Tekke may choose to wrap the Nigerian striker in cotton wool and start him on the bench.

Boran Baskan could come into central midfield, while there may be opportunities for fringe players to stake a claim for a cup final spot.

Anthony Nwakaeme and Edin Visca have both been absentees at different times this season and will not feature.

Predicted Trabzonspor XI (4-2-3-1):
Onana; Tufan, Malkocoglu, Nwaiwu, Lovik; Oulai, Bouchouari; Zubkov, Baskan, Nwakaeme; Nayir

Team news

Genclerbirligi

Diyadin made widespread changes for the midweek cup semi-final and is expected to revert to the side that started the 3-2 league win over Kasimpasa.

The major concern is Erk Aslan, who came off injured during the second half of the cup tie after scoring, and his availability for Sunday is in doubt.

Sekou Koita, who leads the club’s scoring charts with six goals this season, may also face a late fitness test, and if the Malian forward misses out, 16-year-old Ayaz Ozcan could be handed a start after impressing in midweek.

Former Nigeria youth international Tom Dele-Bashiru anchors the midfield and will be tasked with providing the defensive screen in front of the back four. Goktan Gurpuz remains the chief creative threat, having created the most big chances of any Genclerbirligi player this season.

Peter Etebo Oghenekaro, Abdullah Sahindere, Moussa Kyabou and Ensar Kemaloglu are all ruled out through injury.

Predicted Genclerbirligi XI (4-2-3-1):
Velho; Pereira, Goutas, Zuzek, Dursun; Dele-Bashiru, Ulgun; Traore, Tongya, Mimaroglu; Ozcan

Star player showdown

The gulf in individual quality between these two sides is nowhere more apparent than in their respective leading scorers.

Onuachu has been one of the most prolific strikers in European football this season, scoring in 10 consecutive Super Lig matches earlier in the campaign, a feat no Trabzonspor player had achieved in 33 years.

His 22 league goals account for roughly a third of Trabzonspor’s total output, and he is now closing in on Shota Arveladze’s all-time single-season record of 25 goals for the club, set back in 1995-96.

Koita, meanwhile, has been a willing runner and effective focal point for Genclerbirligi, but his six league goals underline the gulf in firepower between the two camps.

If Onuachu starts, he will be the single biggest threat on the pitch, but even from the bench, his ability to change a game in an instant makes him a constant worry for the visiting defence.

The managers

Fatih Tekke is a Trabzonspor legend, having scored 60 goals in 120 appearances for the club during his playing career, and he has transferred that passion and understanding of the club into his managerial work.

His first full season in charge has seen Trabzonspor rise from seventh to third, reach the Turkish Cup final for the third successive year, and establish themselves as the best of the rest behind Galatasaray and Fenerbahce.

Tekke’s pragmatic approach has blended defensive solidity with the attacking threat of Onuachu, Oleksandr Zubkov and Muci, creating a side that is difficult to beat and dangerous on the counter.

Metin Diyadin’s task has been altogether different.

The 53-year-old arrived for his third spell at Genclerbirligi in December, replacing the departing Volkan Demirel, and has been tasked with the simple brief of keeping the club in the Super Lig.

His record has been mixed, with moments of brilliance, such as the cup victory at Galatasaray, offset by a string of away defeats that have left the club’s survival in jeopardy heading into the final day.

If Genclerbirligi stay up, Diyadin will deserve enormous credit for steadying a ship that looked to be sinking when he took over.

Tactical preview

Trabzonspor have operated primarily in a 4-2-3-1 system this season, with Onuachu as the focal point of the attack and Zubkov providing width and delivery from the right flank.

Benjamin Bouchouari and Christ Inao Oulai form a well-balanced double pivot, combining defensive discipline with the ability to progress the ball through midfield.

If Tekke rotates, however, the system may look slightly different, with Baskan potentially slotting in as a number 10 and younger players getting opportunities on the flanks.

Genclerbirligi have favoured a 4-2-3-1 of their own, with Dele-Bashiru sitting deepest and Tongya given licence to drift between the lines.

Their approach away from home has typically been compact and cautious, sitting in a low block and looking to hit teams on the break, although the stakes on Sunday may force a more adventurous approach.

The key tactical battle could be in the wide areas, where Trabzonspor’s full-backs like to push high and create overloads, leaving space in behind that Genclerbirligi’s pacier attackers could exploit.

Set pieces will also be crucial, with both Onuachu’s aerial dominance at one end and the threat of Goutas and Zuzek from Genclerbirligi corners at the other.

Betting tips

Prediction

This is a match with contrasting motivations that could pull in different directions.

Trabzonspor have nothing tangible left to play for in the league and will have one eye on the Turkish Cup final, meaning Tekke is likely to make changes.

Genclerbirligi, on the other hand, could not be more motivated, with relegation a genuine possibility if results go against them elsewhere.

That desperation will count for something, and the Wind of Ankara showed in the reverse fixture that they are capable of scoring freely against this Trabzonspor defence.

However, even a rotated Trabzonspor side carries enough quality to win at Papara Park, where they have been excellent all season, and the hosts’ superior depth should ultimately tell.

Expect a dramatic, open afternoon in Trabzon with goals at both ends.

Final score prediction

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