2026 World Cup Group A permutations: Best and worst case scenario for Bafana

Bafana Bafana’s draw with the Czech Republic revived their hopes of making it to the 2026 World Cup Round of 32 but they face an uphill task.

‎South Africa avoided early elimination when Teboho Mokoena’s 83rd minute penalty rescued a point from the jaws of defeat following a 1-1 draw with the Czechs.

‎With Mexico beating South Korea 1-0 on the same day, Group A is still wide open heading into Matchday three.

‎Mexico’s win over South Korea propelled them to the top of Group A with the maximum six points, having also beaten Bafana Bafana 2-0 in the tournament opener and most importantly, they sealed their place in the knockout round.

‎Heading into the final group stage match, the other three: South Korea, South Africa and Czech Republic can all make it to the Round of 32.

‎South Korea have three points after their 2-1 win over Czech Republic, while the Europeans and South Africa each have a point after their 1-1 draw.

‎Best case scenario for Bafana Bafana

‎For Bafana Bafana, the job is clear, beat South Korea.

‎With the top two from each group and the eight best third ranked teams making it to the knockout round, a win for South Africa, coupled with a defeat for Czech Republic against Mexico will send Hugo Broos’ side into the Round of 32 outright as the second placed side in Group A with four points.

‎South Korea, with three points, would be left facing an anxious wait to know if they would be among the eight third best ranked teams. The Czech Republic would be eliminated.

‎Second route to Round of 32 for South Africa

‎Broos already said that he believes three points will be enough to seal a place in the knockout round but could his side get four and still fail to qualify?

‎This is highly unlikely. A win for South Africa over the Koreans coupled with victory for the Czechs over the co-hosts would leave both on four points.

‎There are a number of tie-breaking scenarios that would determine who finishes second in Group A in this instance.

Goal difference is among them and currently, South Africa are worse off with -2 while Czech Republic have -1. It means South Africa will need to outscore the Czechs to finish second in this instance. However, four points and third place should be enough for Broos’ men.

‎What would spell the end for SA at World Cup?

‎It is simple. Anything other than a win and South Africa will be on the plane back home.

‎A draw would leave South Korea on four points and in second place, if Mexico win Matchday three, which would also send the Czechs back home.

‎If the Czechs win, then they would have four points and likely in the Round of 32 no matter what happens between South Korea and South Africa.

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