Mamelodi Sundowns have made an impressive start to their FIFA World Cup campaign but there is still a lot of work to do if they are to progress from Group F.
Sundowns have three points from two games, with a goal difference of zero, after beating Ulsan 1-0 and then losing a thriller 4-3 to Borussia Dortmund.
Three points has rarely been sufficient to get beyond the group stage at previous FIFA World Cups, but many teams have gone through with four.
However, four will be no good for the Sundowns on this occasion and that is largely a consequence of the FIFA Club World Cup's league sorting rules.
Therefore, Sundowns will go into Wednesday's clash with Fluminense knowing they must win or they will be heading back to South Africa very soon.
What is the main FIFA Club World Cup tie-breaker method?
If two teams finish level on points at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup then then the first tie-breaking method will be their head-to-head record.
This marks a change for FIFA, who used goal difference as the chief tie-breaker in the group stage at the last national team World Cup in 2022.
How Group F looks after two rounds of fixtures at Club World Cup
| MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | |
| 1. Fluminense | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 2. Dortmund | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 3. Sundowns | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4. Ulsan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
FIFA Club World Cup sorting rules in full
If clubs are level on points at the end of the group stage, the following criteria will be applied in order:
- Head-to-head result: Priority is given to the result between the teams in question. If one side beat the other, they finish above them.
- Head-to-head goal difference: If the match was drawn or if multiple teams are level, the goal difference in those head-to-head encounters is used.
- Head-to-head goals scored: Should teams still be inseparable, the number of goals scored in their direct matches is assessed.
- Mini-group re-evaluation: If more than two teams are tied and some but not all can be separated using the above steps, the process is repeated just for those still tied.
- Fair play record: Teams are then ranked by their disciplinary record, with yellow and red cards accumulating penalty points.
- Drawing of lots: If no separation can be made after all the above, progression is decided by a random draw.
This structure ensures that direct performance between teams takes precedence, rather than overall goal tallies, placing added importance on every single result.
Therefore, because Sundowns lost to Dortmund, the only way to finish above the Bundesliga side is to earn more points — even if Dortmund were to lose 10-0 to Ulsan!
Photo courtesy of Mamelodi Sundowns
Group F permutations
Here’s what each potential outcome means for Mamelodi Sundowns:
If Sundowns beat Fluminense, then Miguel Cardoso's men will move to six points and be guaranteed to finish above Fluminense. Whether they qualify in first or second place would depend on Dortmund’s result against Ulsan.
If Sundowns draw with Fluminense, they will finish on four points. That would leave them behind Fluminense, who would have five. Dortmund would also go through, even if they lost heavily to Ulsan, because they would be level on points with Sundowns and have a superior head-to-head record.
If Sundowns lose to Fluminense, they remain on three points and are definitely out, finishing in third place.
Will Sundowns beat Fluminense at the Club World Cup?
It is impossible to predict what will happen the team nicknamed ‘the Brazilians' take on one of Brazil's top clubs in Miami Gardens on Wednesday night.
However, Betway's latest odds suggest Fluminense are the more likely winners.
If you are planning on betting on the Club World Cup then make sure you first have a look at the sign-up bonus available to new customers on Betway.
Fluminense are currently rated as 7/8 favourites, while Sundowns can be backed at 14/5. Meanwhile, Sundowns are priced at 250/1 to win the whole tournament.
According to Betway, the most likely world champions this summer include PSG (3/1), Bayern Munich (9/2), Manchester City (9/2) and Real Madrid (5/1).
