AFCON 2025: Super Eagles look invincible, but here is how Morocco will try to exploit them

Ahead of the Super Eagles’ Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON 2025) semi-final against Morocco, the odds have the three-time African champions as clear underdogs.

While their status as hosts explains this somewhat, it is something of a surprise that the Atlas Lions are favoured so resoundingly. As has been thoroughly established by this point, Nigeria are the tournament’s leading scorers to this point, and have been, by consensus, the outstanding team of the finals. Since reaching the knockouts, they have also, handily, discovered an ability to keep clean sheets, with their most recent fixture against Algeria an extreme example of their defensive fortitude.

ICYMI: Here’s how we booked our place in the semifinals of #AFCON2025.

The win too sweet our belle 😌

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— 🇳🇬 Super Eagles (@NGSuperEagles) January 11, 2026

Beyond the top-line numbers, however, there is a sense of completeness to this Nigeria side. Their hallmark being a suffocating high press, it would be logical to prescribe a more direct approach for opponents: kick long and try to build from there. The problem with that, however, is that Eric Chelle’s side also boasts the second-highest aerial duel win rate in the entire competition. Against opponents that sit back, their patient possession and sudden tempo changes pry open the lock; against opponents that are aggressive, their menace in transition is a fearsome weapon.

Faced with all of this, it can be tempting to suggest the Super Eagles are unbeatable. If history has taught us anything, however, it is that anyone can take a loss. While, on the level of macro tactics, there is no obvious antidote or chink in their armour, on a micro tactical level, there are miniscule areas of concern that could decide their meeting with Morocco.

Hakimi-Diaz connection

Barring something truly seismic from this point in terms of performance levels from Ademola Lookman, Victor Osimhen or Mohamed Salah, it is safe to assume Brahim Diaz has sewn up tournament MVP status. The Real Madrid man has been decisive with his impact on matches, netting in every match so far, and carrying the pressure and expectation of the home fans on his back.

His combination with Achraf Hakimi on the right will be key if they are to hurt Nigeria. While those two can wreck any team on their day, there is a particular concern for the Super Eagles, which is that they play on, in theory,  the Super Eagles ‘weak’ side defensively. 

The split of Nigeria’s no.8s has Frank Onyeka, the more physically assertive of the two, on the right, with Alex Iwobi marshalling the left side with control and distribution. While the Fulham man is far from a slouch out of possession, containing those two is a massive ask for most anyway, and Iwobi typically has a bit more licence to roam, which could expose Bruno Onyemaechi.

Set-pieces

These are the two sides who have generated the most Expected Goals (xG) from set-pieces in the tournament so far: Morocco first, Nigeria second. So both carry a threat in this respect.

That said, the Atlas Lions rely on it a lot: 44 percent of their goals have come from set-pieces (28 percent for the Super Eagles), as has 42 percent of their total shots (just under 24 percent for the Super Eagles).

This makes the likelihood of a set-piece goal in this semi-final quite high. Either side can get it, but it is clearly something Walid Regragui has prepared his side to exploit, and considering that Nigeria have conceded from a dead ball situation in this competition, there could be something there for Morocco.

Breaking the press

Nigeria’s press is tournament-leading and frighteningly efficient. What it is not, however, is infallible. Many factors can affect the effectiveness of a high press, and not all of them are structural. Some are down to simple factors like inefficiencies in body shape and orientation.

At points in their beating of Algeria, the Super Eagles were actually faced with situations when their press was broken. These were not repeated occurrences, of course. However, in those moments, the Desert Foxes were able to break into space, but were let down by their decision-making, repeatedly unable to recognise where the overload was: typically either side of the holding midfielder or on the far side of the pitch. The chief culprit in this respect was Bayer Leverkusen’s Ibrahim Maza, whose tunnel vision prevented Algeria from making more of those situations.

If Morocco can find and properly exploit those moments by breaking quickly into space and making the correct decisions in transition, they could give Nigeria a dose of their own medicine.