AFCON 2027: Does CAF’s expansion help or hurt the Super Eagles chances?

CAF’s decision to expand the Africa Cup of Nations from 24 to 28 teams has been celebrated as another landmark moment for African football, Afrik Foot reports.

More nations will now experience the continent’s biggest stage, while East Africa prepares to host the first AFCON jointly staged by Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

For Nigeria, however, the conversation goes beyond qualification. The Super Eagles are never judged by whether they qualify for the Africa Cup of Nations. They are judged by how close they get to lifting the trophy.

So, while the expansion undoubtedly creates opportunities for emerging nations, does it actually improve Nigeria’s chances of winning a fourth AFCON crown or make the path more difficult?

On paper, an expanded tournament appears to favour established heavyweights.

Nigeria have qualified for virtually every AFCON tournament over the past three decades, and under the new format, reaching the finals should become even less complicated.

The bigger question is what happens after qualification. The revised format introduces seven groups of four teams, with the top two from each group joined by the two best third-placed sides in the Round of 16.

That means more nations stand a chance of going deeper into the tournament, reducing the likelihood of elite teams eliminating one another during the group stage.

While that sounds beneficial, it also creates a knockout phase packed with confident underdogs who have already proven they can survive difficult groups.

Nigeria’s recent AFCON campaign offers a warning

The Super Eagles arrive at this discussion fresh from a strong AFCON 2025 campaign.

Eric Chelle’s side won all three group-stage matches, defeated Mozambique 4-0 in the Round of 16 and eliminated Algeria 2-0 before eventually losing to hosts Morocco on penalties in the semi-finals.

Nigeria recovered to beat Egypt in the third-place playoff and secure bronze.

The three-time African Champions rarely struggle against the continent’s middle-tier nations. Their biggest obstacle usually arrives when they face another heavyweight capable of matching their quality over 120 minutes.

An expanded tournament changes that dynamic. Instead of reducing Nigeria’s workload, it potentially adds another knockout fixture against a dangerous opponent before they even reach the latter stages of the competition.

More games increase the margin for error

Winning AFCON has never been solely about talent. It requires consistency across six or seven matches, intelligent squad rotation and the ability to manage injuries and suspensions.

Adding more competitive fixtures naturally increases physical demands. For Nigeria, who rely heavily on Europe-based stars such as Victor Osimhen, Ademola Lookman, Alex Iwobi, Calvin Bassey, Raphael Onyedika and Wilfred Ndidi, fatigue could become an even bigger factor.

One injury to a key player at the wrong moment could completely alter the tournament. Unlike club football, there is little time to recover during AFCON.

The gap between Africa’s elite is shrinking

CAF justified the expansion by arguing it would improve competitiveness across the continent. Ironically, that may also reduce Nigeria’s chances of lifting the trophy.

African football has become far more balanced than it was a decade ago.

Morocco reached the 2026 FIFA World Cup final, Senegal continue producing elite-level talent, Egypt remain perennial contenders, while countries such as DR Congo, South Africa and Mali have strengthened over the past decade.

Even nations outside Africa’s traditional elite now possess players competing in Europe’s top leagues.

An expanded AFCON provides these teams with greater tournament experience, making future editions even more competitive.

Why the Super Eagles can still benefit

Despite the challenges, the expansion is not entirely bad news for Nigeria. One major advantage is squad depth.

Eric Chelle has already shown a willingness to broaden his player pool rather than rely on a fixed starting eleven.

The Unity Cup demonstrated that emerging players can successfully integrate into the national team without weakening overall performance. That flexibility could become crucial during the AFCON.

Nigeria also possess one of Africa’s strongest teams, capable of deciding matches even when performances are below their best.

Tournament football often rewards teams with individual match-winners, and few countries can match Nigeria’s firepower.

Winning the AFCON 2027 may be harder

The expansion undoubtedly improves Africa’s inclusiveness, but it does not necessarily improve Nigeria’s title prospects. If anything, lifting the trophy may become slightly more difficult.

More teams mean more knockout matches, greater physical demands and an increasingly competitive field filled with ambitious nations eager to prove themselves.

For the Super Eagles, success at AFCON 2027 will depend less on the format and more on preparation, tactical flexibility and maintaining the consistency they displayed for large parts of the previous edition in Morocco.

Nigeria already have the quality to win the Africa Cup of Nations. The challenge is ensuring that they can still outperform everyone else when it matters most.