FA Cup final – Chelsea vs Man City prediction, preview, h2h: Tosin in historic battle with old club

Wembley Stadium hosts the 2026 Emirates FA Cup final on Saturday, with Chelsea and Manchester City meeting at this stage of the competition for the first time in its 145-year history, Afrik-Foot reports.

Quick predictions

The contrast between these two sides could hardly be starker. City arrive at Wembley on 77 Premier League points, just two behind Arsenal, after a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace on Wednesday. Pep Guardiola must navigate four matches in 11 days, with the league title still very much within reach.

Chelsea, meanwhile, sit eighth in the table and had lost six consecutive Premier League matches before scraping a 1-1 draw at Liverpool last week. This final represents far more than a secondary ambition for the Blues. It is their sole remaining opportunity to salvage a deeply troubled season with a trophy.

Match preview: Chelsea vs. Man City

Chelsea’s season has resembled a perpetual building site since August. Enzo Maresca, appointed in 2024, was sacked on January 1 after an indifferent run of Premier League results. His interim replacement, Calum McFarlane, managed just two matches before Liam Rosenior was brought in on January 8.

Rosenior himself lasted only until April 22, dismissed after five successive league defeats, including a heavy 3-0 loss to Manchester City at Stamford Bridge in mid-April. McFarlane has since taken charge for a third spell this season, tasked with guiding the Blues through their remaining fixtures.

Despite that internal chaos, Chelsea have delivered when it has mattered in the FA Cup. Pedro Neto scored a hat-trick against Hull City, Enzo Fernandez was decisive in the semi-final victory over Leeds United, and Joao Pedro remains the club’s leading scorer across all competitions with 20 goals.

A European qualification through the league now looks almost impossible, with the Blues sitting four points behind Brighton, but a win on Saturday would secure a place in the Europa League next season. It is an opportunity that a club with top-four aspirations at the start of the campaign can scarcely afford to pass up.

On Manchester City’s side, the machine appears to have found its rhythm after a slightly uneven start to the season. The serious injury to Josko Gvardiol (a fractured tibia) in January unsettled the backline, and City went through a spell looking less assured than usual.

However, with the EFL Cup already in the cabinet and the Premier League title race still alive, the prospect of a treble remains real. Victory at Wembley would make City only the sixth club in history to complete the domestic cup double of FA Cup and League Cup in the same season, following Arsenal, Liverpool (on two occasions) and Chelsea.

In terms of recent momentum, the advantage clearly lies with City. Guardiola’s men have not lost a single domestic match since their defeat to Manchester United in January. Erling Haaland has returned to devastating form, scoring a hat-trick against Liverpool in the FA Cup quarter-final, while Rayan Cherki and Jeremy Doku offer an attacking threat that Chelsea may struggle to contain.

The Blues, by contrast, have not won a Premier League match in two months, their only positive result being the 1-1 draw at Anfield last week.

Head-to-head record between Chelsea and Manchester City

The statistics make grim reading for Chelsea. Since winning the Champions League final 1-0 in May 2021, they have not beaten Manchester City in any of the 13 meetings that have followed. City have won 10 of those encounters, with three draws, scoring 25 goals and conceding just seven. Chelsea have not kept a single clean sheet during that run.

The most recent clash between the two clubs, the 3-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge on April 12, perfectly illustrated the gulf between them. City dominated on both a technical and physical level, and that memory will still be fresh in the minds of the Chelsea players heading into this final.

In the FA Cup specifically, this will be the first time these two sides have met in a final. Their only recent cup encounters came in 2023 and 2024, with City progressing on both occasions. Across all competitions since the formation of both clubs, City hold a commanding advantage: 27 victories to Chelsea’s 12, with seven draws. Saturday’s match will also be the seventh time the two clubs have faced each other on neutral ground at Wembley, a venue both know intimately.

In FA Cup terms, since the 2016-17 season, City and Chelsea have been the two most successful sides in the competition. City have recorded 45 victories compared to Chelsea’s 37, scored 159 goals to Chelsea’s 111, and kept 28 clean sheets against 26. Both are FA Cup heavyweights, though the current momentum sits firmly in City’s favour.

Team news and probable lineups for Chelsea vs. Man City

Chelsea’s preparations have been complicated by a series of injury concerns. Robert Sanchez, the first-choice goalkeeper, was injured in the match against Nottingham Forest and missed the trip to Liverpool with a concussion. Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho, both absent at Anfield last week, remain doubtful and are not expected to be available on Saturday.

The confirmed absentees represent an even bigger blow. Estevao Willian has been ruled out for the remainder of the season with a hamstring injury, as have Jamie Gittens and young Jesse Derry, who suffered a head injury during his first Premier League minutes against Nottingham Forest. Mykhailo Mudryk continues to serve a four-year ban imposed by the FA following a positive test.

The main positive news concerns Levi Colwill. The English international, sidelined since July with a ruptured anterior cruciate ligament, played the full 90 minutes at Liverpool and appears on course to start this final at Wembley.

Probable Chelsea XI (3-4-2-1): Sanchez (or Jorgensen); Colwill, Fofana, Adarabioyo; James, Santos, Caicedo, Cucurella; Palmer, Fernandez; Joao Pedro

On Manchester City’s side, the main question mark surrounds Rodri. The Spanish international has missed City’s last five matches with a groin issue. A return for this final is possible, but Guardiola will not take any unnecessary risk with his midfielder.

Gvardiol made his comeback against Crystal Palace on Wednesday after a long spell on the sidelines. That is a welcome boost for Guardiola, who can call upon a near-full-strength squad for this showpiece occasion.

Probable Manchester City XI (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; Nunes, Guehi, Ake, O’Reilly; Bernardo Silva, Rodri; Semenyo, Cherki, Doku; Haaland

Adarabioyo returns to face Manchester City

This showpiece occasion carries an added layer of personal significance for Tosin Adarabioyo, the Chelsea centre-back who is eligible to represent the Super Eagles through his Nigerian heritage.

The 28-year-old spent 18 years at Manchester City, progressing through the academy to become the then-youngest player to start a Champions League match for the club.

Adarabioyo will be keen to make an impact against the club where he learned his trade. The NFF target joined City’s academy at the age of five and spent close to two decades at the club before spells at Fulham and eventually Chelsea, whom he joined on a free transfer in July 2024. Since leaving the club, he has made three Premier League appearances against City, recording 21 clearances, four interceptions and four tackles.

Facing his former employers on the grandest stage of domestic English football will be a full-circle moment for Adarabioyo.

Standing at 1.97 metres, the towering centre-back has been a useful option for Chelsea this season, and his aerial presence could be vital if the Blues are to have any hope of frustrating City’s attacking firepower.

Key players to watch

The managers: McFarlane vs. Guardiola

Against an experienced operator in Guardiola, Chelsea will be led by a 40-year-old interim coach on his second short-term stint at the helm this season.

McFarlane joined the club last summer to take charge of the under-21 side. Having observed the tenures of both Maresca and Rosenior from behind the scenes, he was promoted to first-team duties on April 22, the day after the 3-0 defeat to Brighton.

A product of the Manchester City academy himself, McFarlane will be returning to familiar territory. His top-level experience is limited to a handful of interim spells, but he knows the Chelsea dressing room well and has managed to restore a degree of calm after several turbulent weeks. Under his watch, Chelsea held Liverpool to a draw and booked their place in this final by beating Leeds in the semi-final.

Guardiola, at 55, is contesting his fourth consecutive FA Cup final with City. He won one, in 2023 against Manchester United, before losing the following two. The Catalan coach is eager to close out this cycle with another trophy. At the same time, he is managing an intense title race against Arsenal, with the potential for a treble of league championship, FA Cup and League Cup.

His handling of a congested fixture list has been closely scrutinised. Against Crystal Palace on Wednesday, he rested Haaland, Doku and Cherki, preserving them for this final.

Tactical preview: Chelsea vs. Man City

McFarlane almost certainly does not possess the tools to match City in an open, end-to-end encounter. The most credible approach for Chelsea appears to be a deep, compact 3-4-2-1, with Moises Caicedo and Andrey Santos tasked with shielding the defence, while Cole Palmer and Fernandez are given greater freedom between the lines. The objective will be to keep the score level for as long as possible, shut down the central areas and exploit quick transitions.

City will look to monopolise possession, stretch Chelsea’s defensive block through Doku and Antoine Semenyo on the flanks, and feed Haaland in the spaces created by the Citizens’ quality in build-up play. The centre-back pairing of Marc Guehi and Nathan Ake will need to provide defensive stability behind the midfield. If Rodri is available, he will remain the linchpin of Guardiola’s system, capable of dictating the tempo and securing defensive transitions.

The main vulnerability Chelsea could seek to exploit lies precisely in those transitions. City occasionally take risks when they are in control of the match, and a Palmer capable of releasing Joao Pedro in behind could cause real problems. Marc Cucurella also troubled Liverpool with his attacking runs from left wing-back.

In response, City will attempt to exploit the spaces left behind Chelsea’s wing-backs, particularly if Doku drives into the channels behind Reece James or Cucurella. The biggest unknown remains Rodri’s fitness. If the Spaniard is absent or below his best, City’s defensive protection could become more vulnerable to Chelsea’s counter-attacks.

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