As the race for a place at the 2026 World Cup enters its final stretch, Nigeria’s Super Eagles find themselves clinging to renewed hope. A 2-1 victory over Lesotho in Polokwane, courtesy of William Troost-Ekong’s penalty and Akor Adams’ debut strike, reignited belief within the camp. The result, coupled with South Africa’s goalless draw and Benin’s narrow win away in Rwanda, has left Group C finely balanced heading into the final round of fixtures.
After nine matches, Benin lead the group with 17 points, followed by South Africa with 15, and Nigeria in third on 14. It means that all three nations remain in contention for the group’s sole automatic ticket to the World Cup. The permutations are simple yet fragile: Nigeria must defeat Benin on the final day in Uyo and hope that South Africa fail to win at home to Rwanda.
The growing chatter among fans and pundits, however, centres on whether the Super Eagles must record a big victory. A 3-0 scoreline has been widely circulated to edge Gernot Rohr’s Benin Republic. But is that really the case?
Understanding the qualification equation for Super Eagles
Under CAF’s qualifying tiebreaker rules, when teams finish level on points, the first tiebreaker is the head-to-head record among the teams concerned. If that remains level, the next criteria are the goal difference in matches between those teams, followed by the number of goals scored in those same fixtures. Should they still be equal, the away goals scored in the head-to-head encounters are used to separate them.
However, because Benin defeated Nigeria 2-1 in Abidjan earlier in the campaign, a 1-0 win for the Super Eagles in Uyo would make the head-to-head scoreline 2-2 on aggregate. Nigeria would then progress on the away goals rule, having scored once in Abidjan compared with Benin’s none in Uyo. In other words, the Super Eagles do not need to win 3-0, a 1-0 victory would suffice, provided South Africa drop points against Rwanda.
If South Africa defeat Rwanda, they will top the group regardless of events in Uyo. If they draw or lose, Nigeria’s margin of victory over Benin will decide who advances. The equation, then, is not about emphatic scorelines but about precision: win by one, keep a clean sheet, and pray for a favour from South Africa..
So, while a 3-0 win would certainly be emphatic, it is not a mathematical requirement. Nigeria’s fate will hinge more on South Africa’s result than on the size of their own victory.
