Quick prediction
Zambia 2-1 Malawi
1.80
1.75
1.95
WAFCON 2026 clash Malawi vs Zambia is set to go down at Al Madina Stadium in Rabat on Wednesday, and it pitches two sides who need very different things from the same result, Afrik-foot reports.
Coming into this competition, this was expected to be a David vs Goliath fight, but two games into the tournament, and that is a very distant thought with the game only a few hours away.
For Malawi, a point is enough to confirm a quarter-final place at the first attempt, a remarkable outcome for a country making their WAFCON debut.
For Zambia, only a win will do, with the Copper Queens needing to beat their neighbours to guarantee a route out of a Group C that has already swallowed one of the tournament favourites.
Nigeria’s shock opening 3-2 defeat to Malawi turned what was tipped as a routine group into the tightest of the sixteen-team tournament, and this Southern African derby now carries the weight of deciding who fills the second quarter-final berth alongside Malawi, who need only avoid defeat to book their own place in the last eight.
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Both sides have scored freely at this WAFCON and both have looked capable of a defensive lapse at the wrong moment. That combination points to an open, high-stakes contest between two teams who know exactly what is riding on it.
Malawi vs Zambia Match Preview
Group C now reads Malawi top on six points, Zambia second on three by virtue of a superior goal difference, Nigeria third also on three, and Egypt bottom without a point and a -8 goal difference after two rounds.
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Malawi’s position is the story of the tournament so far. Lovemore Fazili’s side beat 10-time champions Nigeria 3-2 in their opening match, then followed it up with a 3-1 win over Egypt to make it two wins from two in their first ever appearance at the finals.
They have done it despite finishing the Egypt match with ten players, with defender Rose Alufandika sent off for a last-defender foul, and despite failing to keep a clean sheet in their last four matches in all competitions.
Zambia’s route here has been bumpier. Nora Häuptle’s side announced themselves with a 6-0 demolition of Egypt in the tournament opener, a performance built almost entirely around captain Barbra Banda’s four goals, before a positional mistake at the back allowed Asisat Oshoala to snatch an eighth-minute winner for Nigeria in game two.
Zambia dominated large spells of that match, especially after Nigeria were reduced to ten players before half-time, but could not find the breakthrough their possession deserved.
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The permutations heading into the final round are straightforward for Malawi and much less so for everyone else. A draw at Al Madina Stadium guarantees the Scorchers top spot regardless of what happens in the simultaneous Nigeria against Egypt fixture, since no other side in the group can then reach as many points. Zambia have no such luxury. Anything less than a win leaves their fate dependent on results elsewhere, and specifically on Nigeria failing to beat Egypt in the other Group C match.
That equation gives this match a clear emotional split. Malawi can play with the freedom of a side that has already exceeded every expectation placed on them before the tournament began, while Zambia carry the anxiety of a team that arrived in Morocco as one of the pre-tournament favourites and cannot afford to leave without the three points their squad was built to deliver.
There is a wider context too. WAFCON 2026 doubles as Africa’s qualifying route to the 2027 FIFA Women’s World Cup in Brazil, with the four semi-finalists booking automatic places and a fifth side heading into an intercontinental play-off.
Malawi have never featured at a World Cup, and a run to the last four would be a landmark beyond anything the women’s game in the country has previously produced. Zambia, by contrast, already have one World Cup appearance to their name from 2023 and see this generation, built around NWSL regulars Banda, Racheal Kundananji and Prisca Chilufya, as one capable of going further still.
Head-to-head
This is a rivalry with real history, even though the two nations have never previously met at the WAFCON finals.
Since 2012, Malawi and Zambia have played each other ten times, with four wins apiece and two draws, and Zambia hold the edge on aggregate goals. But interestingly, the very first fixture between the two nations doubled as Malawi’s first-ever official international, when Zambia won 8-0 at the 2002 COSAFA Women’s Championship in Harare.
But since 2012, the rivalry has been far more competitive. In 2012 African Women’s Championship qualifying, Zambia won the first leg 7-0 before Malawi produced their first ever competitive victory over their neighbours by winning the return 4-2, though Zambia still went through on aggregate. Zambia also eliminated Malawi from 2022 WAFCON qualifying following a second-leg defeat.
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Malawi have had the better of the more recent meetings. In October 2023 the Scorchers beat Zambia 2-1 in the COSAFA Women’s Cup final in Pretoria to win their first ever regional title and deny the Copper Queens back-to-back COSAFA crowns, with Temwa Chawinga finishing as the tournament’s top scorer.
Zambia responded by winning 2-0 when the sides met again at the following year’s COSAFA Cup. The two nations then played out a mini-series of friendlies in February 2025, with Zambia winning the first meeting 2-0 before Malawi hit back to win the second 3-2 just two days later.
That split record sets the tone for Wednesday. Whichever way this one goes, it will do little to settle an argument that has run for more than two decades.
Team news
Malawi
Fazili has kept faith with almost the same group throughout the tournament and is unlikely to make wholesale changes to a side that has won both its games.
The one enforced alteration is at the back, where Rose Alufandika serves a one-match suspension after her red card against Egypt for a last-defender foul on Habiba Essam. Tionge Phiri is the likely replacement alongside Chimwemwe Madise in central defence.
Further forward there is no reason to break up a front line that has scored three goals in each of Malawi’s two matches so far. Temwa Chawinga has scored in both games and sits second in the early Golden Boot standings, one goal behind Barbra Banda, while captain Tabitha Chawinga also has a goal to her name from the opening win over Nigeria.
Faith Chinzimu, who scored the second goal against Egypt, and Rose Kadzere, who opened the scoring in that match, have both done enough with their recent form to keep their places in the side.
Predicted Malawi XI (4-4-2): Sikelo; Mkandawire, Phiri, Madise, Khumalo; Kadzere, Nguluwe, Chinyamula, Tabitha Chawinga; Chinzimu, Temwa Chawinga.
Zambia
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Häuptle has had no fresh injury concerns to contend with and named the same starting eleven that beat Egypt for the match against Nigeria, so wholesale changes seem unlikely again here.
Grace Chanda’s range from midfield and the experience of Margaret Belemu at the back give Zambia a platform to build from, even after a below-par attacking display against Nigeria that produced only two shots on target.
Up front, the responsibility again falls on Barbra Banda, who scored four times against Egypt but was kept quiet by a well-organised Nigeria side.
Racheal Kundananji remains a consistent outlet in behind defences, while Eneless Phiri, who scored the sixth goal against Egypt and came off the bench against Nigeria, looks set to earn a recall to the starting attack.
Predicted Zambia XI (4-2-3-1): Nali; Belemu, Maluba, Mweemba, Nachula; Chileshe, Lungu; E. Phiri, Chanda, Kundananji; Banda.
Star player showdown
Barbra Banda
Zambia
Temwa Chawinga
Malawi
The Managers
Lovemore Fazili has overseen every stage of Malawi’s rise, from the qualifying win over Angola in October 2025 through to a debut campaign that has already surpassed anything the women’s game in the country has previously achieved.
His approach has been built on discipline in a low block and pace on the counter, and he has resisted the temptation to change a winning team even after losing a player to a red card against Egypt.
Speaking after that win, Fazili made clear there would be no shift in mentality for the Zambia match. “We are taking every game at a time and even if we need a point, we will fight for all the points on offer,” he said. “Being a decider, it will be a tough match, but we have a team that is out to prove a point.”
Häuptle took charge of Zambia in 2025 after a spell leading Ghana’s women’s team.
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The Swiss coach holds a UEFA Pro Licence and a master’s degree in sports science from the University of Bern, and her stated priority since arriving has been adding tactical structure to a squad already rich in individual talent.
That project has produced mixed early results at this WAFCON, with a record victory over Egypt followed by a display against Nigeria that offered promise without reward. Häuptle was blunt about what went wrong in that defeat, pointing to a mistake in her own goal. “It was also a little positional error on the keeper,” she said. “We have a fantastic keeper but in this situation, she didn’t look good.” On the Malawi match itself, she left no doubt about the approach. “We will go out fully against Malawi,” she said.
Tactical Preview
Malawi’s 4-4-2 has been built for exactly this kind of occasion, sitting compact without the ball and looking to break quickly through Chinzimu and the Chawinga sisters once possession is won back.
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The trade-off is defensive fragility in wide areas and against set pieces, with Egypt’s only goal in the last match coming from a free-kick header, and Malawi failing to keep a clean sheet in their last four matches in all competitions.
Zambia’s aerial threat from Chanda’s delivery and the movement of Kundananji in the channels could be the route to exploiting that vulnerability, particularly if Malawi’s back four is forced into a reshuffle following Alufandika’s suspension.
Zambia’s 4-2-3-1 asks Banda to lead the line as the focal point, with Kundananji dropping into pockets either side of her and Chanda dictating tempo from a deeper role.
The same shape got badly bypassed by pace in behind against Nigeria, with Asisat Oshoala punishing a high defensive line inside eight minutes, and Malawi possess exactly that kind of pace through Temwa Chawinga’s direct running.
Zambia’s midfield pairing will need a much sharper night than the side managed against Nigeria if the Copper Queens are to control the game through the middle rather than relying purely on individual quality up front.
If both sides get to press their strengths, this has the makings of a match with chances at both ends rather than a cagey stalemate.
Betting Tips & Predictions
Betting tips & predictions
Both teams to score
Malawi have scored in three of their last four matches and Zambia have found the net in seven of their last ten, all in various competitions. Neither side has kept a settled defence together for long at this WAFCON.
Zambia to win
The Copper Queens must win to guarantee qualification, and that need, combined with their attacking quality, makes them the narrow favourites on the night.
Over 2.5 goals
Three of the four group games played by these two sides so far have produced at least three goals, with only Zambia’s tight loss to Nigeria bucking the trend, and both sides’ shaky defending points to more of the same.
Barbra Banda to score anytime
The Golden Boot leader was kept quiet by a resolute Nigeria defence but should find more space against a Malawi side committed to pushing forward themselves.
Final score prediction
Zambia 2-1 Malawi
- Motivation gap: Zambia have to win, Malawi only have to avoid a heavy defeat, and that difference should show in the final third.
- Individual quality: Barbra Banda and Racheal Kundananji have combined for four goals and two assists already at this WAFCON and should find at least one opening.
- Malawi’s own threat: Temwa Chawinga has scored in both games so far and is unlikely to go through ninety minutes without a chance of her own.
- Neither defence is watertight: Malawi have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four matches, and Zambia have conceded in eight of their last ten, across all competitions.
- The bigger picture: even in defeat, Malawi’s six points from two games leave them well placed to progress regardless of Wednesday’s result.
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