Nigeria stands little chance of winning the 34th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON 2023), according to a test ran by the Opta supercomputer.
Football is known for its unpredictability but the supercomputer tried to cut through the chaos by using Opta's in-house power rankings and some betting odds to devise a possible outcome for each nation heading into the competition.
Opta's favourite team to emerge as winners is defending champions Senegal, with a 12.8% chance of adding a second star to their ranks.
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According to Opta, the Super Eagles would at least make it into the knockout stages and with just an 8.0% probability, they are sixth favourite to emerge champions.
In 2019, Nigeria finished third best but couldn't repeat the feat in 2022 when Cameroon hosted the 2021 edition, but would be hoping to go a step further this time around under Jose Peseiro.
AFCON 2023 podium favourites
According to Opta, Senegal should easily qualify for the round of 16 from Group C with a percentage of 88.8% by finishing top ahead of Cameroon (33.5%), Guinea (11.9%) and Gambia (7.2%).
They will be counting on quality players such as Al-Nassr's Sadio Mané, who has created the most chances in the Saudi Pro League this season. According to Opta, he has 0.32 odds for expected assists in the competition. Center forward Nicolas Jackson is expected to star in Ivory Coast, with odds of 10.59 for expected goals.
Host nation Ivory Coast are the second favourites with a 12.1% chance of winning the title, a feat that will make them the first country to host and win since Egypt in 2006. The Ivorians won't just be relying on home advantage as they boast of a formidable squad, led by their new captain, Serge Aurier.
Morocco complete the podium with an 11.1% chance of winning, especially after becoming the first African nation to reach the semifinals at a World Cup in 2022. The Atlas Lions have struggled to win the continental title, their last triumph coming in 1976.
Algeria have a 9.7% chance of winning and Egypt with 8.5% to close out the top 5. Cameroon are the seventh favourite team to win, Tunisia is 8th with a 6.3% chance while Ghana are 9th with a 5.3%, just a little above the other teams who all have an outside chance of winning the AFCON title with chances less than 4%.
