Aston Villa vs Nott’m Forest preview, h2h, tips & more as Aina targets first European final

Thursday night at Villa Park carries the kind of weight that does not come along very often in English football, as two Premier League clubs Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest, go head to head for a place in the UEFA Europa League final in Istanbul.

Nottingham Forest arrive in Birmingham holding a 1-0 advantage from the first leg at the City Ground, where Chris Wood’s second-half penalty secured a result that puts the Tricky Trees within 90 minutes of their first major European final since 1980 and gives Aston Villa a formidable deficit to overturn in front of their own supporters.

Nigeria Watch: Two Super Eagles Stories, One Very Different Outcome

Two Nigerian internationals cast long shadows over this tie, though the circumstances facing each of them could not be more different.

Ola Aina has been a consistent and underappreciated part of Forest’s remarkable run to the last four, making six Europa League appearances from right back since his return from a long-term hamstring injury that wiped out the opening months of his 2025-26 campaign.

The 29-year-old, who committed his future to the City Ground by extending his contract to 2028 last summer, was integral to the defensive solidity that helped Forest beat Fenerbahce, Midtjylland and Porto to reach this stage, and his aerial ability, tackle success and forward threat had made him a key figure in Vitor Pereira’s system.

It is a cruel blow, then, that a knock picked up in recent weeks now looks set to rule him out of the biggest game in Forest’s recent European history, with the injury list showing a return date of May 9, two days after this match.

His compatriot Taiwo Awoniyi tells a different kind of story entirely, and for Nigerian football fans following this tie it is one laced with frustration.

The striker was left out of Forest’s UEFA Europa League squad entirely at the start of the season, a decision that UEFA registration rules have made permanent for this campaign, meaning that despite scoring twice in a starring role in Monday’s 3-1 Premier League win over Chelsea, including marking his 100th Forest appearance with a brace, Awoniyi simply cannot play on Thursday night.

Under Vitor Pereira he had fallen so far down the pecking order that he had managed just 63 minutes of action since the Portuguese coach arrived in February, yet that Chelsea performance proved he still has everything it takes at this level, only for it to count for absolutely nothing when the Europa League semi-final comes calling.

The contrast between the two Super Eagles players says everything about the unpredictable nature of football at the sharp end of the season.

Match Preview: The State of Play Heading Into the Second Leg

Aston Villa enter this second leg with a mountain to climb and a proud European home record to lean on, trailing 1-0 on aggregate but knowing that Villa Park has been a fortress in continental competition this season.

Unai Emery’s side finished second in the Europa League league phase, dispatched Lille in the round of 16 and swept aside Bologna in the quarter-finals, and they have now won nine consecutive European fixtures at home, scoring in 31 of their last 32 at Villa Park in Europe.

Their domestic form is the pressing concern, though.

Three consecutive Premier League defeats, including a dismal 2-1 home loss to relegation-threatened Tottenham on Sunday, represent their worst run since 2024, and while Emery rested key players for that game, the broader pattern of five losses from eight league matches is impossible to ignore.

Villa cling to fifth place and still have Champions League qualification in their sights, but right now their attention must shift entirely to Europe, where they remain the more credible force.

Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, are coming into this game in quite extraordinary form.

Their 10-game unbeaten run under Pereira, featuring seven wins and three draws, has completely transformed the mood around the City Ground, where a relegation battle was very much the primary concern when the Portuguese coach took charge in February.

Six points clear of the drop zone after that Chelsea result, Forest are now playing with a confidence that is palpable, and the question for Thursday is whether they can replicate the discipline and ruthlessness that earned them such a valuable first-leg result.

Villa’s Europa League form in knockout football, however, remains exceptional, and Emery’s tactical nous in this competition specifically is a factor that cannot be dismissed.

Head-to-Head Record: History Favours the Hosts

In the long sweep of meetings between these two clubs, Aston Villa hold the clear advantage.

Going back to their very first encounter in the 1880-81 FA Cup, Villa have accumulated 64 victories in 136 meetings against Forest, who have won 40, with 32 draws completing the picture.

More pertinently for this week, Forest’s last win at Villa Park came all the way back in October 1994, a run of almost 32 years without a victory in Birmingham that is a remarkable piece of historical context ahead of this second leg.

In terms of recent head-to-head meetings between the sides, both clubs have traded blows regularly in the Premier League this season.

Villa won 3-1 at Villa Park in January, their second victory in successive home league meetings with Forest, having also beaten them 2-1 in April 2025.

Forest’s sole league win over Villa in recent seasons came in December 2024, when a dramatic late turnaround at the City Ground saw Nikola Milenkovic and Anthony Elanga overturn Jhon Duran’s opener in a 2-1 victory under Nuno Espirito Santo.

The last league meeting before this tie ended 1-1 at the City Ground in April 2026, Forest earning a point through Neco Williams after Murillo’s own goal had given Villa the lead.

The reverse fixture in this competition, the first leg at the City Ground just over a week ago, is the one that matters most, and Forest’s clinical conversion of their one real chance, Wood’s penalty after Lucas Digne’s clear handball, sets up a fascinating second act.

Team News: Outs, Doubts and Who Could Start

Emery faces a more settled picture than Pereira in terms of availability, with his first-choice squad largely available after Sunday’s rotated lineup was found wanting against Spurs.

Amadou Onana (knee, out until May 24) and Boubacar Kamara (knee, out until June) are both absent, as is the ineligible Ross Barkley.

John McGinn picked up a minor muscular issue that kept him out of the Spurs defeat, but his expected return date aligns with Thursday and he should be in contention to start, with Emery having kept him fresh for exactly this occasion.

Ollie Watkins, who was omitted from the starting line-up on Sunday, returns to lead the attack, bringing with him four Europa League goals this season, making him Villa’s top scorer in the competition.

Morgan Rogers is the player Forest will be most wary of; the winger has been directly involved in five goals across his six Europa League home appearances this season, making him the most dangerous weapon in Emery’s attacking arsenal at Villa Park.

Ezri Konsa and Diego Torres anchor a defence that is expected to be back to full strength, with Matty Cash restored at right back after his cameo off the bench in the first leg.

Predicted Aston Villa XI: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Maatsen; Bogarde, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins

Forest’s team news is considerably more complicated and potentially damaging to their chances of seeing out the tie.

Ola Aina’s knock keeps him sidelined, removing Forest’s first-choice right back and the player who has made six Europa League appearances for the club this season.

Zach Abbott is the most likely replacement despite a minor head concern of his own from the Chelsea game, while Dan Ndoye’s availability remains uncertain after his own knock.

Murillo, Ibrahim Sangare, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Nicolo Savona, John Victor and Willy Boly all remain out with longer-term injuries.

The biggest doubt of all surrounds Morgan Gibbs-White, who sustained a deep facial laceration in a clash of heads with Chelsea goalkeeper Robert Sanchez on Monday, forcing him off in the 66th minute.

Pereira was cautiously optimistic afterwards, confirming no concussion but asking his medical staff to “work magic” to get his talisman fit in time.

Gibbs-White, who has 10 Premier League goals and three assists since the turn of the year, would be a massive loss if he cannot start, and his absence would significantly reduce Forest’s ability to unlock a Villa defence that has kept three clean sheets in the knockout phase alone.

Chris Wood is certain to lead the line, bringing with him the confidence of having scored the winner in the first leg as well as the milestone of netting his 200th professional goal.

Igor Jesus, who has contributed five away goals in the Europa League this season, including the most shots on target of any player in the competition, will partner Wood in Pereira’s two-striker system.

Predicted Nottingham Forest XI: Ortega; Abbott, Milenkovic, Morato, Williams; Hutchinson, Dominguez, Anderson, Gibbs-White; Jesus, Wood.

The Managers: Two Very Different Routes to the Same Stage

Unai Emery’s presence in a Europa League semi-final is so familiar at this point that it almost defies comment, yet his record in this competition remains genuinely extraordinary.

A four-time winner of the tournament, with Sevilla between 2014 and 2016 and then with Villarreal in 2021, Emery has not lost a two-legged tie in the competition since Atletico Madrid eliminated Valencia in the semi-finals back in 2012.

That means he has progressed from 22 consecutive two-legged Europa League ties, a statistic that represents perhaps the most remarkable individual record in the history of the competition.

He knows exactly how to manage a one-goal deficit over two legs, when to push, when to absorb, and how to get the best from his players in the moments that matter most.

Vitor Pereira’s Europa League experience is far more recent and far more condensed, having only taken charge of Forest in February as the club’s fourth manager of the season.

The Portuguese coach arrived with a clear brief of avoiding relegation after guiding Wolverhampton Wanderers to survival in 2024-25, and he has delivered on that and then some.

His methods took time to bed in, with Forest supporters initially unconvinced, but the 10-game unbeaten run he has presided over, which includes steering the Tricky Trees past Fenerbahce, Midtjylland and Porto in Europe, has made him something of a cult figure in Nottingham.

Pereira has also never lost a match against Aston Villa, winning 2-0 with Wolves in the Premier League last season and drawing 1-1 in the league fixture at the City Ground in April before the first-leg win last week.

It is a record he will be desperate to protect in the most high-profile meeting between the two clubs in living memory.

Tactical Preview: How This Could Unfold Over 90 Minutes

Emery will set Villa up to attack from the first whistle, almost certainly in a 4-2-3-1 that shifts to a 4-3-3 in possession, with the width and pressing intensity designed to overwhelm Forest in the opening exchanges while the atmosphere is at its most febrile.

The key battleground will be the right side of Forest’s defence, where Abbott is set to deputise for the injured Aina, and Morgan Rogers will be given a very clear instruction to run at him all evening.

Ola Aina’s absence is genuinely significant; his aerial ability, his pace and his experience of playing in big games cannot be easily replaced by a player who has not been a regular starter, and Rogers, who thrives in one-on-one situations, will treat that as a priority target.

Equally important for Villa will be whether Amadou Onana’s absence in midfield weakens their ability to win the second ball and build the platform for attacks, with the combination of Tielemans and Bogarde a slightly less dominant pairing in the middle of the park.

Forest’s approach will be one Pereira knows extremely well: hold their shape, press selectively rather than relentlessly, and look to exploit the transition when Villa commit numbers forward.

His recent tactical shift to a two-striker system with Igor Jesus and Chris Wood has given Forest a much more direct option in behind a high Villa defensive line, and Wood’s aerial ability in particular will be a weapon from set pieces, just as his penalty converted Forest’s one real chance in the first leg.

The concern for Pereira is whether his midfield, potentially without both Gibbs-White and Aina, has enough quality to keep possession when they need it in the second half of the game, particularly if Villa are pressing them at two or three goals up.

If Gibbs-White is absent, Elliot Anderson takes on a much bigger creative burden, and Omari Hutchinson’s ability to carry the ball from midfield becomes vital to relieving pressure when Villa come forward in waves.

Key Context: Records That Will Decide the Tie

The sheer weight of statistical evidence pulling in both directions makes this one of the harder second legs to call in recent Europa League history.

Villa’s record of nine consecutive European home wins is a compelling argument for the home side, as is Emery’s remarkable 22-tie unbeaten streak in two-legged Europa League knockouts, which dates back to that defeat to Atletico Madrid in 2012.

Forest’s counter-argument is arguably just as persuasive: they have lost just one of their last 13 knockout ties after winning the first leg, and that sole defeat came in the notorious 1984 UEFA Cup semi-final against Anderlecht, a result that has become part of footballing folklore for entirely the wrong reasons.

The injury absences surrounding Ola Aina, Gibbs-White, Murillo and Sangare give Villa a genuine edge in terms of squad availability, and a Villa Park with 42,000 supporters demanding a comeback creates an atmosphere that routinely drags their European performances to another level.