AFCON 2025: Wild historical stat predicts not just the final, but heartbreak for Super Eagles

The quarter-finals of the ongoing Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON 2025) kicks off on January 9, 2026, with all of the final eight in the continent’s top 10, per the FIFA rankings.

This elite dominating the latter stages of tournaments is hardly newsworthy. However, never before has it been seen to this extent: this is the first time since the inauguration of the FIFA rankings that all eight quarter-finalists have been drawn from the continent’s top 10 (as at the start of the tournament).

If the aim of a competition is to determine the absolute best, this is as close as AFCON is ever going to get to fulfilling that premise.

For context, here is a representation of the tournament’s last eight composition going back to 1994, which was only the second AFCON edition to feature a quarter-final stage and the first to be held with the world football governing body’s ranking active.

As can be seen, 2025 stands alone. The closest the competition has ever come to this was in 2008 and 2017, both with seven out of eight in the top 10.

Interestingly, those editions could well hold the key to predicting the outcome of the ongoing tournament in Morocco.

Will AFCON 2025 follow the paths of 2008 & 2017?

If one believes in portents and patterns, the culmination of the 2008 and 2017 AFCON editions could be instructive indeed.

First of all, for fans of the Super Eagles, it is not good news.

In 2017, the three-time African champions did not make it to the competition at all, so that can be discounted; already, by virtue of their presence in Morocco, Nigeria have outstripped that. In 2008, the Super Eagles were very much present for the tournament in Ghana; it did not, however, end well for them, as they were defeated in the quarter-final stage by the host nation, in front of a hostile crowd in Accra.

Eric Chelle’s side face off against Algeria in the last eight on January 10, and while Les Fennecs are not the hosts, they will nevertheless boast vastly superior support numerically in Marrakesh, effectively rendering it an away tie. Ominous, to say the least.

Beyond Super Eagles scaremongering, however, those two editions also feature a statistical quirk that could repeat itself. In both 2008 and 2017, the finals were contested by Egypt and Cameroon: the Pharaohs won the former by the odd goal inside the final 15 minutes of the match, while the Indomitable Lions also won the latter by the odd goal inside the final 15 minutes.

Considering both nations are on opposite sides of the draw at AFCON 2025, the prospect of a repeat is very much real!